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Steven Martin
@Colosteve2000
AI, semiconductor & quantum research for investors Intel | Foundry | Memory | Advanced Packaging Founder, Roaring Fork Research
Joined October 2024
569 Following    1.1K Followers
๐——๐—œ๐—”๐— ๐—ข๐—ก๐——๐—•๐—”๐—–๐—ž ๐—˜๐—ก๐—˜๐—ฅ๐—š๐—ฌ ($๐—™๐—”๐—ก๐—š) ๐—ฅ๐—˜๐—ฆ๐—˜๐—”๐—ฅ๐—–๐—› | ๐—ข๐—–๐—ง๐—ข๐—•๐—˜๐—ฅ ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฒ, ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฒ ๐— ๐—ฌ ๐—ฅ๐—˜๐—”๐—— The oIl is a bit out of my normal posts but with the tech struggling I have began looking for ways to diversify as I am way to concentrated in the Data Center with power leasing model of companies. Of course I don't leave power completely they have a large up to 1.5GW power project under way with their partner IPP. Diamondback is a large, scale Permian oil producer with strong recent cash generation and a higher 2026 production. The stock still depends largely on oil prices. The higher the price the higher the stock generally speaking. One of the more exciting to me projects is the Bryant Ranch power project could create another outlet for its gas. The poject is estimated to be 1GW to 1.5GW's its expect to use around 15% of Diamondbacks Natural gas production. They will be working with a local power provider IPP. Oh did I mention we need more power in the USA. thats going to be a solid move going forward and i think other producers of natural gas will at least consider it. ๐—ช๐—›๐—”๐—ง ๐—ง๐—›๐—˜๐—ฌ ๐——๐—ข โ€” ๐—”๐—ก๐—— ๐—ช๐—›๐—ฌ ๐—œ๐—งโ€™๐—ฆ ๐—œ๐—ก๐—ง๐—˜๐—ฅ๐—˜๐—ฆ๐—ง๐—œ๐—ก๐—š Diamondback produces oil and natural gas in the Permian Basin. In Q2, it averaged 525,000 barrels of oil per day and 1.018 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. It generated $3.6 billion in net cash from operating activities and $2.3 billion in free cash flow, and raised its 2026 production outlook. That scale and cash generation give it room to fund investment and pay down debt. ๐—ฅ๐—˜๐—–๐—˜๐—ก๐—ง ๐—ฆ๐—˜๐—ง๐—จ๐—ฃ FANG closed Friday at $203.95, up 4.27% on the day. From its October 7 close of $184.38, it gained about 10.6% through October 16. Other large oil producers also rose Friday, while the broader market fell. The move looks tied to strength in energy and crude, with FANG outperforming some peers. ๐—–๐—”๐—ง๐—”๐—Ÿ๐—ฌ๐—ฆ๐—ง๐—ฆ Q3 results are scheduled for November 2 after the close, with the call November 3. Investors will need to be watching for 2027 plans and performance. An October 8 filing already disclosed Q3 realized prices: $87.30 per barrel for unhedged oil and $85.89 hedged. It also reported $182 million in commodity-derivative losses, including $97 million in cash settlements. Thatโ€™s useful context when assessing how much elevated spot oil may flow through to reported results. Bryant Ranch is a projected for 2027. On the Q2 call, management described a bridge to grid power project on roughly 30,000 acres, targeting first gas in the second half of 2027 and grid connected power as soon as 2028. Management said it would provide a fuller update after definitive hyperscaler documentation. ๐—ฅ๐—œ๐—ฆ๐—ž๐—ฆ ๐—”๐—ก๐—— ๐—ช๐—›๐—”๐—ง ๐—œโ€™๐—  ๐—ช๐—”๐—ง๐—–๐—›๐—œ๐—ก๐—š Net debt was $12.3 billion at June 30, and production economics remain exposed to commodity prices. SGF FANG Holdings sold 9.08 million shares in September and retained about 65 million. That sale is a real supply overhang, though it doesnโ€™t signal whether more sales are planned. For earnings, Iโ€™m watching whether Q3 cash generation supports debt reduction and buybacks, what management says about 2027, and whether Bryant Ranch advances to a documented customer agreement. The $16 billion buyback authorization is the capability to buy them back but not a commitment.
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