JustDario
@DarioCpx
Entrepreneur | Angel Investor | Asymmetric Bets | Many opinions on Macro, Stocks, and Facts | My Slice Portal for market professionals:
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September 2027 US Congressional hearing on the collapse in value of Nvidia shares - Exhibit 3
This doesn’t look like a healthy market at all to me - I wonder if they are considering the fact that if you bend something too much, you are going to break it
If the US ability to project military power was at least equivalent to effectiveness of their minions messing around in the crude oil market, by now there could have been a good chance the whole chaos in the Middle East was already over
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Imagine what would have happened if on Monday Ukraine and Russia didn’t agree with Trump to stop targeting eachother energy infrastructure
Ukraine has struck an oil refinery in Moscow, Russia.
These ongoing attacks on Russian oil facilities could push global energy prices even higher.
The attack comes despite Trump urging Ukraine to stop targeting Russian oil refineries and diesel infrastructure. Trump has argued that these strikes are contributing to a global diesel shortage and record-high fuel prices.
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They just dumped crude oil futures to celebrate this obviously bearish news 👍🏻
UKMTO says an Oil Tanker was struck by an unknown projectile this morning (2 hours ago) during an inbound transit, using the southern corridor.
Crew (possibly U.S. personel according to recent Fox news report) have sustained minor injuries.
*We spotted the GREEK-owned LR STEPHANIE transiting inboud this morning, possibly the targeted tanker.
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After tumbling on Friday, so far today European stocks are recovering all losses because, of course, who needs ARAMCO crude oil in Europe right?
This is shaping up like COVID 2.0 in my humble opinion - feel free to disagree
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And this moment feels like the time when the news about COVID starting to spread in Europe, but not yet in the US, hit the tape
This chart shows you don’t need Diesel export controls when there isn’t surplus Diesel to fulfil the local demand first as long as locals pay market price as it has been happening all over the world thanks to crude oil prices still kept artificially low
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Chart of the decade (to use Javier's terminology for once): Global diesel & gasoil seaborne exports yoy in kbpd.
@JavierBlas
According to Reuters, in August Saudi exported 700kb/d of oil through Hormuz vs 2.9mb/d so far in September with LESS VLCC transiting the straight (average is now 2-3 a day), VLCC that also carry Iraq, UAE and some Kuwait crude to be clear - Only dumb algorithms believe this crap
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Less ship transits (from a trickle to less than a trickle) but Saudi Oil exported through Hormuz rise - Ok, they stopped making up ship numbers after people figured out numbers were inflated, but they still make up the barrel of crude oil that go through Hormuz 😂
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FYI this is just happened: my dad comes to pick me up at the airport and first thing I ask him is what he thinks about crude oil price. His answer “people don’t care about TV News saying the oil price is going down when they go refill their cars and they see it is rising instead”
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@DarioCpx 100%. Also, they can keep prices at 95 a barrel but won't matter if there is simply no fuel available at the gas stations.
If the US ability to project military power was at least equivalent to effectiveness of their minions messing around in the crude oil market, by now there could have been a good chance the whole chaos in the Middle East was already over
Show more
Less ship transits (from a trickle to less than a trickle) but Saudi Oil exported through Hormuz rise - Ok, they stopped making up ship numbers after people figured out numbers were inflated, but they still make up the barrel of crude oil that go through Hormuz 😂
Show more
My next markets and trade ideas update, "THE WEEK THE MARKET STARTS RUNNING OUT OF LUCK?" is now available to my premium subscribers on the Slice portal
Hopefully by the time I land and I am back online WW3 hasn’t started 🥹 🤞
The weekend oil chart looks like Usain Bolt waiting to hear the sound of the gun
My next markets and trade ideas update, "THE WEEK THE MARKET STARTS RUNNING OUT OF LUCK?" is now available to my premium subscribers on the Slice portal
We all know what this means - buckle up
Iran is two weeks away from Nuclear Weapon - Bibi Netanyahu at UNGA
And this moment feels like the time when the news about COVID starting to spread in Europe, but not yet in the US, hit the tape
Imagine what would have happened if on Monday Ukraine and Russia didn’t agree with Trump to stop targeting eachother energy infrastructure
Ukraine has struck an oil refinery in Moscow, Russia.
These ongoing attacks on Russian oil facilities could push global energy prices even higher.
The attack comes despite Trump urging Ukraine to stop targeting Russian oil refineries and diesel infrastructure. Trump has argued that these strikes are contributing to a global diesel shortage and record-high fuel prices.
Show more
Here you go guys, all the pieces of the puzzle are falling into place - the reason why you haven’t seen China supporting the US gaining a upper hand against Iran so far. That outcome will be even worse for China than enduring limited oil supply and buy expensive crude for a while
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Those people who think China is going to help US to turn the tables against Iran should check what happened to all Chinese infrastructure investments in and crude oil exports from Venezuela
These days, a nonsensical debate on social media started about US export bans on Diesel and crude, something I already wrote about, saying it's not in the US's best interest for many reasons, but this comment in my subscribers' community on Slice perfectly nails the whole matter
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Those people who think China is going to help US to turn the tables against Iran should check what happened to all Chinese infrastructure investments in and crude oil exports from Venezuela
