DAY 348 // WAR + MACRO UPDATE WAR Russia launched a major overnight barrage on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. It used 39 ballistic missiles and more than 120 drones. Targets were in Kyiv, the Kyiv region and Kharkiv. Several combined heat and power plants were hit and about 600,000 people lost power. Zelensky called it a direct violation of the energy ceasefire announced by Trump. The Kremlin said details of any such arrangement are still being worked out. Iran stepped up shipping attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz. It is using spotter boats after US strikes degraded its radar. Maritime sources logged at least five incidents involving commercial vessels in 48 hours. These include tanker hits and a container ship that sank. Iran says the ship hit a mine, while maritime security sources say it was hit by a projectile. Yemen's Houthis hit Saudi Aramco facilities and airports. They say they hit King Khalid Airport in Riyadh with a ballistic missile again. The airport was already closed until 17 October. Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf said a deal with the US cannot prevent another attack on Iran. He said the aim is not endless war or prolonged talks. Zelensky warned that an apparent Starlink shutdown in Ukraine could cause human losses. He urged Musk to restore service and said it may be a technical problem. Musk said Starshield systems are owned and controlled by the US government. Starshield is the military version of Starlink. He said Starlink is limited to civilian or defensive use. Asked if he feels betrayed by Trump's diesel deal, Zelensky said yes, but it is complicated. MACRO September CPI came in hotter than expected. CPI is the consumer price index, the main US inflation gauge. Headline rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year. Core, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% on the year. Gasoline jumped 9.1% on Middle East energy disruptions. Odds of an October Fed hike rose toward 50%. Treasury yields and the dollar moved higher. Fed officials pushed back. Goolsbee called the data discouraging and said services inflation was a concern. Barkin said CPI was higher than hoped. He said he would not prejudge the October FOMC meeting on 27 to 28 October. The FOMC is the Fed committee that sets interest rates. The Fed Beige Book signals weak growth and persistent inflation. The Beige Book is the Fed's survey of business conditions across its 12 regional districts. Only 2 of 12 districts saw moderate growth. 3 districts reported strong price increases. Employment was little changed in most districts. The New York Fed will not add new Treasury bill purchases for a third straight month. Treasury bills are short-term US government debt. It will only reinvest $14.6B between 15 October and 13 November. Fed Chair Warsh speaks Thursday at the IMF meetings in Bangkok. His remarks could reshape rate expectations. Markets sold off. The Nasdaq was down about 2% at one point. Spot gold fell nearly 2% to $4,073. The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, hit a near two week high.