1/7 DecodeMarkets | Morning Notes October 5th, 2026 Brazil 🇧🇷 just gave the bears a nasty homework assignment: explain why Friday discount still makes sense. Flávio leads. PL gained ground in Congress. October 25 still decides the presidency. Money, inconveniently for anyone waiting for complete certainty, has no obligation to wait $EWZ is the front door Inside: banks, oil + steelmaker with net cash. If political change brings cheaper capital, this could become much bigger than an election bounce. Let’s find where improving expectations could turn into actual profits.

You’re an institutional PM Your $ETH allocation is ZERO I’d start rehearsing the next investment committee meeting. You saw the Q3 outperformance. Congress stalled on CLARITY. The SEC and CFTC kept moving. Bessent and the White House made the direction clear. Institutions are edging in. Exchange balances are shrinking. And you’re still “monitoring developments” Every micro dip seems to find a buyer. This doesn’t even look like retail FOMO yet…. Now imagine retail deciding the four-year cycle is no longer the playbook… just as institutional committees finally approve an allocation. Everyone discovering conviction. Everyone wanting a fill. That’s when your committee asks: “Remind us why we owned ZERO?” “We were waiting for clarity” Washington moved faster than you. Let that sink in. To me, this feels like the dead calm before the last two leg-ups. Then came the god candle. Zero is a position. Have a better explanation for it. Hope you get your fill. Market won’t wait for your next meeting

Could quarter-end window dressing fuel institutional FOMO in $ETH? At yesterday’s call @fundstrat chart shows ETH leading the quarter. Managers who missed the rally, where mandates permit, may now want exposure before September 30 to show the winner in their reported holdings. That demand could reinforce momentum and draw more sidelined capital into the trade. Missing the rally is uncomfortable. Reporting zero exposure to the winner can be even harder.

$BMNR is starting to look insane 3 straight weeks of buybacks Closing in on 5% of circulating $ETH BlackRock and BNY Mellon piling into the stock Exposure to $WLD through $ORBS And a $200M bet on Beast Industries with DeFi potentially embedded into MrBeast’s future financial platform Connect the dots A beast is being built by Tom Lee…