Guy Berger
@EconBerger
Senior Advisor on Labor Markets at Access/Macro; Workforce Economist in Residence at Guild; Senior Fellow at BGI. Tweets represent my own views.
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while I agree that it’s more important to think about “gross labor market disruption” than net employment growth impacts, I also think gross disruption has been very small outside of a few pockets
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Let’s say you read a piece that is obviously written by AI.
And let’s say the author shows you that they in fact did substantial work drafting/shaping the piece prior to feeding it to an LLM.
Would this change your assessment of the piece?
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Fixed it.
Gork, generate new American beef herd. Make no mistakes
The most optimistic take I can offer on the sketchy Census report on voting is that it is obvious (albeit unlabeled) “sponsored content”.
At this point if this is the worst that political tampering with our independent statistical agencies gets, I’ll count us as pretty lucky
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This is a big deal.
See also John Abowd at
If we really are heading toward a period of political techlash, the jobs of serious outward facing social impact researchers at those companies just got a lot harder… I know and respect a lot of those people and don’t envy the balancing act
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pet peeve: I find this statement construction to be confusing.
Is it predicting slower future GDP growth (for how long) each year? Or about a recession (unwinding 2-3% of prior growth)?
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5/ This thread is a bummer but I saved some modest good news for last... we *are* seeing a tentative stabilization in job finding rates by people who are not in the labor force.
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4/ I think I tweeted this back when the jobs report came out, but we're seeing ongoing steady slow deterioration in the job finding rate out of unemployment.
The doom of the software developer job has been greatly exaggerated...
As a share of the US labor force, it's near the highest it's ever been and on a steep uptrend.
I respectfully disagree w/the great @greg_ip . If the stock market continues to boom, jobs (or at least labor market slack; not much room to add jobs without immigration) will follow.
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One weird thing about the latest round of YIMBY / SF governance discourse is that it is almost entirely about building within SF city limits***
Yes SF should build a lot more about also… SF Bay Area suburbs are egregious underbuilders
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