Greg Ip
@greg_ip
Chief economics commentator for The Wall Street Journal. A fox, not a hedgehog. Read my articles here:
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This Warsh contradiction has been nagging at me. At Sintra at the start of the month, he took comfort at the recent decline in bond yields, implying bond markets understood low inflation was on the way. Today, he took comfort at *higher* bond yields, saying they will deliver low inflation. How can this be: that lower bond yields are reasons to feel good about inflation, but higher bond yields are not a reason to feel bad about it? Without him articulating a monetary and economic framework, these statements make it feel like he's winging it.
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One problem with using pricing information from big box retailers like Walmart is that they are a small share of the consumption basket, with no footprint in huge categories like housing, health care. To date, alternative inflation data based on retailers hasn't been a reliable predictor of CPI or PCE.
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