Ellis Bates
@ElliscbIV
Election Analysis Fellow @VoteHub. Forecasts & occasional writing on Substack. MI roots, CA native. Marist '30 🦊
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Michigan’s gold-standard poll finds El-Sayed matching Benson’s 4-point lead, a sharp turnaround from Rogers’ 3-point edge in the last poll.
El-Sayed also holds a 12-point net favorability edge over Rogers, double Benson’s 6-point advantage over James.
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Absentee votes are in across Grand Rapids, and El-Sayed leads by more than 16 points.
Absentee returns show Stevens keeping heavily white northwestern precincts tight, while El-Sayed is outperforming in the city's Blacker neighborhoods.
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Remember when a DraftKings-sponsored poll ended up nailing the Illinois Democratic Senate primary?
I feel like we all moved on from this race way too quickly.
