Finance Bureau
@FinanceBureau_
Official Finance Bureau X account: covering everything that the modern investor needs to know.
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💵BIG TECH: Big Tech’s AI bill is FAR BIGGER than its balance sheets show.
Goldman Sachs puts off-balance-sheet commitments at the five hyperscalers, Nvidia, Broadcom and SpaceX at about $4.11 trillion.
The debt and leases these companies actually report total around $1 trillion.
That gap will narrow. Most hyperscaler leases haven’t started yet, and Goldman says about $685 billion comes due by the end of 2027.
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🇺🇸FED: AI is now behind BOTH of the Fed's BIG WORRIES!
Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin says AI spending is adding to inflation now. But he warns it threatens jobs either way:
- If AI underdelivers, investment and stocks could fall
- If it overdelivers, it could displace more workers than expected.
Households are already NERVOUS.
The share expecting higher unemployment a year out is the highest since April 2020.
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🚨BREAKING: US payrolls jumped by 165,000 in October, more than double the forecasts.
The forecast was 65,000. Unemployment fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, and August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000 jobs.
The gain far exceeded the 48,000 monthly average of the past year.
Professional and business services led with 70,000 jobs, followed by health care with 42,000.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month and 3.1% on the year.
Before the report, markets saw about a 72% chance of a Fed hike on December 9.
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🚨BREAKING: US jobless claims fell to 189,000 last week, matching the lowest level since 1969.
Initial claims dropped 6,000 from the prior week and came in below the 196,000 forecast. The reading ties the mid-July low.
Continuing claims rose 23,000 to 1.718 million, keeping the “low-hire, low-fire” picture intact. The October jobs report is due Friday.
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🚨 BREAKING: US manufacturing PMI was revised down to 54.9 in October from an initial 56.
S&P Global's survey showed activity still expanding, though new orders rose at their slowest pace since March.
Energy, fuel, transport and metal prices, along with tariffs, pushed input cost inflation to its highest since May, while output price inflation hit its highest since September 2022.
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🇪🇺EURO: France is dragging the euro down.
The euro fell more than 1% in October to around $1.12, close to its weakest in over a year.
France’s economy unexpectedly shrank in Q3, even as its inflation rose to 3.4%.
Political unrest has pushed French bond yields to their highest in over two decades.
The ECB offered little support.
It held rates on Thursday, and Lagarde said a hike was discussed before policymakers unanimously voted to hold.
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💡EARNINGS: Is Google’s earnings now partly a bet on SpaceX’s share price?
Last quarter its stakes in SpaceX and Anthropic added $99B.
This quarter they subtracted $8.7B, as SpaceX stock fell.
But Musk isn't to blame.
Even without the loss, Alphabet still missed estimates, its first double miss in nearly four years.
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💡EARNINGS: 4 very different ways Big Tech is paying their AI BILL
Microsoft beat on both revenue and earnings, and is still funding AI from cash flow while paying shareholders $10.2B.
Alphabet missed earnings badly, burned $9B in free cash and bought back no stock.
Meta, which missed last week on a $9.9B legal charge, is raising $98B from investors.
Meanwhile SK Hynix, which sells them the memory, beat on revenue and operating profit and is handing $75B back to its shareholders.
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💡EXPLAINED: America’s allies are buying 60% less of its debt.
US-aligned countries bought a net $174.3B of Treasuries in the first eight months of 2026.
That’s the lowest since 2021 and down more than 60% from a year earlier.
🌏Asia led the pullback.
Japan, the biggest foreign holder, bought just $389M, down 99%.
South Korea sold $23.8B, a record for the period. Taiwan was also a net seller.
There’s no single cause. Weak currencies, rising yields at home and unease over US policy may all play a role.
⚠️The timing matters because US debt is above $40T.
Private investors now hold about 70% of it, and they’re more price-sensitive. The 10-year yield sits at 5.02%.
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📽️WATCH: The Fed decides on rates in two days, and it’s not giving any hints.
Chair Kevin Warsh says the Fed is “not in that business anymore.” Is this secrecy or a smarter strategy? 👇
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📰WEEKEND WRAP: Are prediction markets becoming a threat to pollsters? 🗳️
Monthly volume on Kalshi and Polymarket hit $64.9B in September, up from $4.7B in November 2024.
Bets on this year’s congressional races have topped $220M. That’s more than double the $92M bet on the entire 2024 cycle.
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