$ORCL and $CRWV face a repricing of credit risk, along with SoftBank in Japan.
Higher credit risk premiums → potentially higher costs on new financing → pressure on neoclouds’ purchasing power → a possible downgrade in AI hardware order growth.
$ORCL: 5Y CDS widened 26bp overnight to a record 288bp.
$CRWV: CDS broke through 1,000bp, and its 2032 bonds fell to 77 cents on the dollar.
CDS on Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and NVIDIA also hit record highs, though their spreads remain well below Oracle’s.
Our AI Capex Credit Watch: