Have been thinking about this more and more lately in this mkt. From our latest qtrly:
“We have observed that news is being priced into stocks more quickly, and that there is a higher-than-ever propensity for the market to pull forward investment returns when a stock’s narrative turns favourable and aligns with the thematic du jour. A stock might compress two years’ worth of returns into two months if investors turn giddy about that stock’s narrative and growth prospects.
And while there is typically a kernel of truth underpinning an explosive re-rate of a stock, it’s important to recognise when the market has moved too much of a stock’s future gains to the present. Given the wider band in which a stock’s multiple is likely to fluctuate, we believe that more than ever, there are opportunities for value creation in flexing position sizes to take advantage of the multiple de-rate/re-rate cycle.”