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Jack Kuhr
@JackKuhr
Space industry research director at @Payloadspace. Views are my own. jackkuhr.11 on signal.
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The investor summit lineup is now set. I think this may be the most STACKED industry speaker list I've ever seen. 3 DAYS OUT Featuring: - Dave Limp (Blue Origin) - Adam Spice (Rocket Lab) - Andy Lapsa (Stoke Space) - Delian Asparouhov (Founders Fund) - Ashton Kutcher (Decimal Capital) - Karan Kunjur (K2 Space) - Connor Love (a16z) - Bridgit Mendler (Northwood) - Eric Romo (Impulse Space) - Philip Johnston (Starcloud) - Erik Kriessmann (Altimeter) - Achal Upadhyaya (Interlagos) - Max Haot (Vast) - Soren Monroe-Anderson (Neros) - Will Bruey (Varda) - Even Rogers (True Anomaly) - Dan Wright (Armada) - Mike Annunziata (Also Capital) - Dayna Grayson (Construct Capital) - Will Edwards (Firehawk) - Mouad M’Ghari (Harmattan) - Zane Mountcastle (Picogrid) - Zach Shore (Hermeus) - Morgan Beller (Decimal Capital) - Andy Lowery (Epirus) - Adarsh Kulkarni (Foundry Robotics) - Dan Magy (Firestorm) - John Gedmark (Astranis) - Lukas Czinger (Divergent) - Shey Sabripour (CesiumAstro) - Mikkel Vestergaard Frandsen (Sceye) - Topher Haddad (Albedo) - Chris Spagnoletti (Ursa Major) - Marshall Smith (Starlab) - Jonathan Cirtain (Axiom) - Josh Araujo (Forterra) - Spencer McCollester (EnduroSat) - Tess Hatch (Stifel) - Alan Tu (WCM Investment) - Emma Norchet (T. Rowe Price) - Alex Greenberg (Loft Orbital) - Mark Groden (Skyryse) - David Anderman (Sovera Corporation) - Amir Blachman (Outpost) - Curt Blake (Wilson Sonsini) - Frank Finelli (Carlyle) - Hunter Somerville (StepStone Group) - Jeremy Lewin (State Department) - David Tearse (Karman Industries) - Mark Danchak (General Innovation) - Turner Caldwell (Mariana Minerals) - John Maslin (Vulcan Elements) - Andy Markoff (Smack) - Julie Bush (Valinor) - Montana Ware (Orrick) - Akinori Yoshida (SoftBank) - Kevin Roche (Orrick) - Nolan Van Nortwick (RIOT Ventures) - Omar Kunbargi (Asymm) - Greg Barrow (Corridian)
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SPEAKER ANNOUNCEMENT: For the 4th straight year, Mr. Adam Spice. The Space & Defense Investor Summit, Nov 3-4
a16z's @ConnorLoveCA on his thesis behind manufacturing as an asset class. “I think in the end, you won’t vertically integrate everything." "And so, in order to produce at the thousands or tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of systems, you also need to redefine that supply tier in the middle.” “And I think the opportunity that exists, both from an investment perspective and almost as a prerequisite for the systems companies to be successful at scale, is that you need this middle layer of companies re-engineering and redefining everything." "From the actual material that comes out of the ground, to the actuator, the switch, the part, and then the subassembly and the system that makes all these things touch each other.” “We in Silicon Valley have been very much focused on these top systems companies. Now we need to go back and figure out how to actually enable that at scale." With @itsmoislam at the @NYSE
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By 2029, Falcon 9 will be approaching its 20th year flying. By 2029, Starship will be in its 10th year of development/ops. It will be a difficult transition, leaving a launch gap and program delays until 1) Starship clamshell fairing or 2) other rockets ramp. But it is time
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I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about, and talking to people about a post-Falcon world. Why sunset the world’s best rocket? Can Starship replace it? What about Artemis? Why are SpaceXers flocking to Memphis? Grab a coffee, this is a long one.
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Construct Capital's @daynagrayson on raising a fund for heavy industries in 2020, at a time when everyone was hyper-focused on software investing. “The venture world was one that was honed and trained on SaaS." "Everyone knew what a magic number should look like, what the Rule of 40 is and when it should be attained.” “We had a fundamental belief that when venture reaches a point where associates take your deck and plug and chug the numbers and then give you an answer, it might not be venture anymore.” With @itsmoislam at the @NYSE
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Astranis CEO @Gedmark on why AI-driven cyberattacks will push a chunk of government/enterprise activity off the public internet and onto siloed satellite networks. “Where that ultimately leads, I think, is a larger desire to take entire pieces of infrastructure off the internet completely, and have countries and enterprises have more siloed networks: completely standalone networks, air-gapped from the public internet.” With @itsmoislam at the @NYSE
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The cyber incidents of the last 48 hours have been pretty mind blowing. I’ve been trying to piece together the “why now” question, and I think what we’re seeing is the first of a new kind of super-agent driven vulnerability cascade-- first one vulnerability is found by a malicious actor, then other bad actors pop up to try and take advantage of it before companies patch their systems. But because each bad actor is using swarms of thousands of super-agents, those agents are not only exploiting the existing vulnerability, but finding new zero days as well, all in a matter of hours. And the cycle repeats. As of the writing of this post there have been vulnerabilities found across at least half-dozen independent systems including LiteLLM, PHP, eMudhra Certificates, NGINX, Bind 9, and NodeJS. The list continues to grow hour by hour. Basically everything connected to the internet is at risk. Not just company websites and the usual databases of sensitive personal information, but all our critical infrastructure-- banks, power grids, pipelines, government agencies, all of it. The good news is that cybersecurity and ops teams had a chance to see this coming. This is why from when Mythos first dropped and had our first warning, these teams have been hard at work shoring up systems across the board. This is also why at Astranis we’ve seen a massive uptick in demand for truly air-gapped, sovereign networks, deployed via dedicated satellite to span an entire country or connect a large enterprise. It is in fact possible to take an entire category of critical infrastructure off the internet entirely. With a fully self-contained network where all the endpoints are off grid. This is not a new concept-- anyone could do this for your home today with equipment you can buy from Best Buy. But to stand up such a network covering a large geographic area or an entire country, without touching the existing fiber or other network infrastructure, you can only do that with a dedicated satellite. And specifically a satellite in a special orbit called geosynchronous orbit. Over the past year we’ve begun working with some of our customers on what it will take to implement truly air-gapped, standalone networks in support of mission critical use cases like core government functions, emergency response, defense, core infrastructure, or all of the above. That might sound extreme, but that is the kind of measure we expect will be required to shrink the attack surface of some of the world’s most critical infra. That’s just the position we are now in. It's a brave new world.
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a16z's @ConnorLoveCA says if you apply tech to the industries that built America, you can build some of the world’s most valuable companies. “For the last 20 years, companies like Boeing and Rio Tinto and ExxonMobil have been inherently really important to the fabric of America." "They kept us warm, they get us across the country, they kept us safe in a war. But those have not been the most valuable companies.” “Now, when you look at the market, go look at the NYSE tickers behind you, they’re technology companies.” “And so when you apply technology to the areas that are just so important for the fabric of America, you’re going to have both these really important companies to the world and the most valuable companies of the world." "And that’s the investable opportunity today.” With @itsmoislam at the @NYSE
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Our colleague, Tectonic managing editor @e_h_obrien, spent a week in Kyiv meeting with Ukrainian defense companies and getting an update on how the war is progressing. She joined the show to talk about what she saw. “At the beginning of the summer, Ukraine was taking down over 90% of the Shaheds and Gerans that Russia was sending towards them. Now that’s fallen to around 60-ish percent.” Full interview, we covered: - How fast the war is changing - Interceptors vs. jet-powered Gerans - Battlefield-to-factory feedback loops - Starlink reliance - Underground, distributed production - Barriers to foreign investment With @itsmoislam at the @NYSE
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It doesn't matter how big your rocket is, what decade it was built, or how well-capitalized you are, rocket development timelines are remarkably consistent. 6 years from start to first launch. That should be the starting point for expectations here. And then would be awesome if Cowboy could buck it.
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@BaijuBhatt We’re targeting our first launch in 2028. Yes. 2028.
New rocket incoming - Purpose-built for ODC deployment - Second stage becomes the satellite - Methalox - Stainless Steel - 15T to SSO - 1 MW sat orbital data centers Targeting 2028 launch. For comparison, Neutron, Terran R, and Nova are all coming on 6 years of development. So, yeah, hedge that. Cowboy is led by Baiju Bhatt (Robinhood co-founder), who is incredibly well respected in VC circles, so I do think they will have the funding to go the distance on this.
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What you’ve been waiting for: Big Iron. Our rocket.
The Space & Defense Update is LIVE from the @NYSE @itsmoislam and @JackKuhr are joined today by: – @Gedmark, CEO of @Astranis – @ConnorLoveCA, General Partner at @a16z – @daynagrayson, Co-Founder of @constructcap – @e_h_obrien, Managing Editor of @tectonicdefense We're digging into: – Astranis' $468M credit facility from the U.S. Export-Import Bank, and how it ramps domestic satellite production and launches. – a16z's American Dynamism push, and where the firm sees the biggest opportunities in defense, manufacturing, and the industrial base. – Why Construct Capital is investing in foundational industries, and what it takes to rebuild them. – Lessons from a week in Kyiv, and what Ukraine's front lines are teaching defense tech. Comment if you love space and defense (help us share the show!) 👇
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TODAY'S LIVE SHOW LINEUP - @Gedmark (Astranis) - @ConnorLoveCA (A16Z) - @daynagrayson (Construct Capital) - @e_h_obrien (our colleague and legend defense tech reporter at Tectonic) Kicking off at noon ET. Will push live to X. With @itsmoislam
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Bedrock CEO @mrtirman joined the show at the @NYSE to chat undersea intelligence, threats to critical infrastructure, and the Strait of Hormuz. Matthew (former Satellogic president) on the market for undersea intelligence. “I look at where we’re at right now in the space. It’s where Earth observation, where kind of space 2.0 was back in 2015, right?" "You had a lot of commercial capabilities coming online, but the customers, they were just slowly starting to understand the needs and requirements and how they fit this into their CONOPS and their mission packages.” Full interview, we covered: 00:00 Satellogic to Bedrock 03:12 Siren AUV 03:45 Oil & gas vs. defense 04:54 Bedrock vs. $100K/day ships 06:36 Hormuz mines 09:49 2027 capital plans 11:25 Subsea cables & GUGI 13:30 Subsea vs. space 15:45 Underwater comms 16:44 Undersea warfare future 18:19 Public vs. private life With @itsmoislam and @BedrockOcean
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Full interview with Firestorm CEO @DanMagy at the @NYSE on drones and its xCell shipping-container 3D printing factor for the edge. "We figured out basically how to run these things in really hot, humid, cold environments with this kind of expandable 20-foot shipping container." "So you basically load in a CAD, or you design your own part. You hit print." "And I could literally train you two in less than two hours how to run the system to about an 80% competency. And then when the parts come out, you basically can assemble things at the point of need." We covered: 00:19 Gauntlet & AutoWarCom 02:15 Who buys drones 03:12 Ukraine testing ground 06:44 How xCell works 07:14 Contested logistics 09:28 Modular factories 10:15 DoW customers 11:20 Fortress America 13:38 Path to $10–20B 15:28 USS Essex deployment 18:10 Catching China With @itsmoislam and @Firestorm_Labs
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Our full interview with Varda CEO @WillBruey at the @NYSE on the company's $251M Series D and being a space, biotech, and defense biz. “We now have drugs that are required to get to market via microgravity. And when that happens, what’s fascinating is now we have a perpetual demand for launch." "And so, I think that is like the inflection point where industry has gone from confined to our home planet to slightly off our home planet in orbit." "And I think that’s the most exciting thing to me. To me, that’s on the scale of when life went from sea to land." "So my goal is to be like Muddy the Mudskipper, the first fish that went from sea to land." "It was ugly. It was not beautiful. It was not glorious. He’s flopping around in the mud." "And that’s kind of what we’re doing. We’re just shipping bioreactors to space and back. But that is literally the epic transition.” We covered: 0:49 $251M Series D 1:51 Varda’s two business lines 1:55 Microgravity drugs 5:12 Changes since Series C 5:58 United Therapeutics 7:45 AI as an accelerant 9:01 Investors view 9:58 Modeling revenue 11:21 Hypersonic testing 14:02 Delivery from orbit 16:26 Heat shield 18:36 Vehicles 8 and 9 With @itsmoislam and @VardaSpace
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LIVE in 1 hour at the NYSE Lineup: - @WillBruey (Varda) - @DanMagy (Firestorm) - @mrtirman (Bedrock) Manufacturing in space, containerized manufacturing at the edge/battlefield, and ocean intelligence robots. LETS GOOOO
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Full interview with Industrious Ventures' @TaylorCSargent at Off World to discuss the firm's approach to investing in space exploration. Taylor on whether the Moon push survives an admin change "I think that there's just a lot of kinda national pride behind it." "There's a lot of kind of inspiration in kind of inspiring the next generation of scientists and engineers who are gonna be following the programs much like back in the '60s and '70s, they were following Apollo." "And so I feel pretty optimistic that with respect to the Moon specifically, there will be robust support regardless of which party comes in next." "I don't feel that way about most things, but I definitely feel that way about lunar infrastructure." We covered: 00:41 - Industrious' check sizes and portfolio 02:55 - Launch not solved 03:44 - Investing on a clear government signal 04:10 - A term sheet days after Ignition 04:58 - Would the Moon survive a party change? 06:03 - The launch crunch and Falcon 9 06:21 - Why Industrious backs Stoke 08:26 - Starship vs. Blue Moon 11:56 - What's still too early 14:05 - Mars 2040 With @itsmoislam
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Full interview with NASA's Moon Base Program Manager Carlos Garcia-Galan at Off World to discuss the agency's lunar roadmap. "We know that wherever we land spacecraft with jet engines that are spewing all the ejecta and regolith around, you can't be very close to that." "You can't put a habitation module close to that area. So we're thinking maybe a kilometer, a kilometer and a half away." "So the first thing we could do is can we mitigate that? Can we maybe build a berm or something, a wall, that allows us to get that closer?" "Cause every time you land, you're gonna wanna move people and logistics to where your base area is." "So perhaps the first set of construction we'll do is things like that." We covered: 01:59 - Lessons from Apollo 17 03:51 - Phase 1: access and ground truth 04:35 - Phase 2: power, comms, infrastructure 04:57 - Phase 3: permanent habitation 05:12 - What early habitats look like 06:33 - Roads, landing pads and berms 09:02 - Building with lunar regolith 11:18 - Starship and Blue Moon progress 13:25 - Flying 7-9 missions a year With @itsmoislam
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Big level up for our live show @ashnichrist is new media 🐐
I'm thrilled to share that Ashley Christenson (@ashnichrist) is joining the Arkaea Media Group team as Director of Video and Audience, where she'll lead strategy for Spectra (our new visual content arm) and our audience growth initiatives. Ashley started in the creator economy in 2012, specializing in internet-native live shows, before moving into tech as head of growth at an AI company. She has since built marketing strategies for nearly 60 startups and has spent the past few months helping build out our new live show. Much more to come soon, but for now welcome, Ashley!
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SpaceX moving Starlink down to VLEO (where no one else operates) mitigates existential collision risks: Starlink altitudes: - V1: 550 km, now <500 km - V2: 450–500 km - DTC: 350 km - V3: 350 km At 350km, they will have the orbit all to themselves. Any debris, defunct satellites, or collisions will deorbit within a few months. Plus, being closer to Earth means Starlink performance improves substantially.
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However, we cannot mitigate risk when another operator maneuvers without sharing a predicted trajectory that includes the burn. This is the biggest risk in LEO