The low $ 80k was the biggest cluster of long-term resistance - ETF, True Market Mean, LTH holder avg cost basis (@_Checkmatey_) Traditional TA; higher High, higher Low My volatility breakout model: 7/8 previous events since 2016 +41% median 6 months later.

We have never seen an altcoin-led crypto recovery off the lows before. I have been writing about the 'shift' at @RealVision this year. This is the thesis For a decade, crypto's entire focus was scaling the tech to onboard global finance. Token value was an afterthought, and where it wasn't an afterthought, it was actively suppressed. A hostile SEC made sure good teams and good founders never touched anything that looked like designing a token to accrue value, because that looked like a security. Tokenholders ate it. Retail died. Developers left. Then Ethereum gas fees topped $100 a transaction in 2021 and rang the top of that market. Scaling became the only thing that mattered. The industry delivered. We now have an oversupply of blockspace and transaction costs near zero, but that fight also produced an oversupply of protocols and tokens, diluting attention and value across the board. A wave of teams is now correcting for it: Hyperliquid's buybacks have compressed $HYPE supply ~7% in 90 days, Aerodrome has routed over $190M in fees back to lockers this year, Jupiter and NEAR have cut inflation and turned on buybacks of their own. That list is growing every month. Pair that with real demand. Tokenized real-world assets, ex-stablecoins, sit at $32.6B, up from ~$21B at the start of the year, through a tape where crypto prices were cut in half. Scaling was the story of the last cycle. Supply discipline meeting real demand is the story of this one.

Is crypto back? Everyone who quietly rebranded to AI last year seems to think so. Some thoughts on the market, and on @RealVision. Tis the season of humble brags on X, so here's mine. In reality, this was a pretty tough bear market. Crypto had to face the reality of a big drawdown outside of a general equities sell-off. But dogged analysis while the poo was flying thick and fast generated targeted calls and positioning insights that took the portfolio I run for the Pro tier up 2x in 2 months. I don't overtrade. I make high-conviction calls. My primary calls: 1. Derive ethereum:0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be, up 5x from the March Deep Dive 2. Zcash $ZEC (2 trades), up 5x from the April Deep Dive 3. NEAR Protocol $NEAR, up 2x from the June Deep Dive 4. The SCP vs BTC, and the DeFi vs SCP outperformance call 5. In July, deployed 75% of the cash built up since the Q3 2025 top 6. Lousy call on Circle $CRCL, down 20% At @RealVision, my Pro members' portfolio compounded at 40% p.a. for 3 years, including the 47% drawdown. Importantly, it has outperformed both NDX and BTC. Now for the reality check. Altcoin open interest is at the 91st percentile versus Bitcoin. Things are frothy. But the first move out of a bear can be like that without derailing the cycle. This is not the time to get super aggressive or reach for leverage. Expect more volatility. I never like to overtrade the start of a cycle, but taking some profits makes sense. I want to hold Quality names for the medium to long term. (ps: I am bringing out a Quality index/basket to help narrow the field for Alpha tier subscribers.) On the macro front, I am still concerned about the general state of global liquidity. DXY is strong, the yield curve is flattening, and real rates are climbing. We are late stage in the 5-year refi cycle. Bessent blinked, but it will take more to get through this. Crypto could easily see a 30%+ pullback which means (50%+ for many high flyers). But for long-term investors who are now waking up and need to take their crypto allocation from nothing to something (depending on risk tolerance), dips are for buying quality names. The structural tailwinds are coalescing. Some of this move is ahead of the data, but that's generally how markets work. Assets are pricing in what the agent economy + tokenisation looks like in 12 months, not today. Just a short comment on @RealVision. We have been around for 13+ years. After being force-fed the bile of BBG and CNBC for 20 years in TradFi, I saw straight away how transformative the platform was back in 2014 and became a foundational subscriber. I was a subscriber for almost a decade before joining @RaoulGMI to build out the crypto product. It's been an incredible 3 years. Whether as a strategist or a subscriber, I am lucky each day to read the phenomenal macro, equity, tech, AI, and geopolitics analysis from the team of independent strategists team: Raoul, @AndreasSteno, @RosenvoldGeo, and @DMattin. That's 5 strategists who often agree but, more importantly, often disagree. There is no 'house' view. If that upsets you, go become a client of Morgan Stanley, JPM or some brokerage with a conflict of interest. My lane is crypto. That's what I love, and I have never been more bullish on the secular trend that inspired me to leave the TradFi world years ago. Brutal, undignified, sleep-destroying. Best job I have ever had.

The underlying market structure of crypto shifted during this bear market. Tokenisation has been a meme for years, but starting last year it became tangible - we can see it. It's accelerating without the Clarity Act. The SEC's innovation guidelines give the industry 5 years to solidify it. The implications for crypto portfolios are massive. @RealVision

Crypto's internal dollar economy has expanded roughly 14x faster than the real one, and that's after a stablecoin slump this year. Imagine when agents arrive; what will this mean for monetary velocity? A financial era of Machine Velocity @RealVision

Onchain options is the new DeFi vertical. ethereum:0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be regularly accounts for 5% of Deribit's volume. Only the start; tokenisation, v3, all to come. Covered in @RealVision Pro portfolio since March.

Bitcoin and crypto will suck capital from every asset class. That's the trade. This market is roughly $3T today. Over the next 5-10 years I think it gets to $10-20T, and that capital has to come from somewhere. But a trade against everything is hard to track. So I distil it down to the two peers people frame Bitcoin against most: gold and technology stocks. Watching when momentum inflects from bearish to bullish against them after a long bear market is the simplest way to see the rotation happening in real time. On a weekly chart you can abstract away a lot of the day-to-day and even week-to-week volatility. The shift is underway. It won't be smooth, but the next several years will be crypto's most meaningful structural market. $BTC $XAU $NDAQ Tomorrow's report for @RealVision AlphaTier drops and in this report we're going to look at what a crypto allocation should look like in this new regime

Australia 2026. Real household income per person is up just 10.9% since 2010. The OECD average is 26.8%. We're one of the worst performers in the developed world. It's much worse if you have any brain, given the lying government inflation statistics. We have energy abundance. Yet we live in scarcity. We still have an entrepreneurial spine, buried under one of the largest public sectors of any OECD nation. We are overtaxed and underrepresented. Our sickcare system prizes subservience vs. health autonomy, fuelling a metabolic health crisis. It's a rule for thee, not for me, political class; exempting themselves from pension rules, freedom of speech regulations, and dangerous experimental medical intervention mandates, while getting extra tax breaks. This is the setup for Australia becoming the 21st century's Argentina. It's as if they want what's left of this country's productive class to leave.

A year ago on this @1MarkMoss show, I flagged a 30% correction. Got the timing right, underestimated how deep it would cut. At @RealVision I've been adding risk since July and went fully deployed on the August inflection. This time I'm hoping I've underestimated it in the other direction i.e. how big the next wave will be. Price will move well before the evidence. Folks are not prepared for what's coming with respect to debasement and the AI agentic economy. For me, it's less about timing, more about allocation and position size. Bitcoin and crypto will become a much larger slice of institutional portfolios. Thanks for having me on, Mark.

We’re at that point in the US fiscal story, late in a 5–6 year liquidity cycle. where MacGyver wakes up in the cargo hold.Pilots unconscious. Wing on fire. Cockpit door fused shut. All he’s got is a paperclip, a ping-pong ball, and a granola bar. Go Scott "MacGyver" Bessent.

Been digging into token economics across DeFi. Looked at 16 economically comparable protocols in the top-20 by market cap, checked what's changed in the last 12 months. 11 of 16 (69%) have made major supply, issuance, or value-accrual reforms, revenue-funded buybacks, burns, tighter emissions, or better holder accrual. solana:JUPyiwrYJFskUPiHa7hkeR8VUtAeFoSYbKedZNsDvCN, ethereum:0x5a98fcbea516cf06857215779fd812ca3bef1b32, $UNI, $AAVE and others are in that group. Buybacks alone don't create value, and most of these mechanisms are still blunt. But the direction is unmistakable: token economics is moving from afterthought to core design decision. Combined with clearer regulation and better disclosure, it's another marker of this asset class maturing. Report "When Demand Meets Supply Discipline" drops today for Alpha tier @RealVision

We all have models that try to explain the world, shaped by our own biases. I do my best to strip those out and apply first principles and quantitative grounding. But at the end of the day, price is all that matters. "Price movement, in and of itself, is one of the best indicators of a stock's future performance." — William O'Neil

Argentina about to conduct a critical social experiment; If you take away the money printer from government, will it decrease the number of sociopaths, psycopaths and degenerates seeking public office? 🍿🍿 🍿

ethereum:native vs bitcoin:native ETF flows as % of market cap (the right way to compare them) Raw dollar flows favor size, not demand. Scale each day's flow to that day's market cap and the picture flips: • 1M: ETH absorbed ~2.4x BTC's flow-intensity • 3M: BTC net outflow-intensity (−0.12%) vs ETH +0.41% • 6M: BTC flat/negative (−0.02%) vs ETH +0.38% Advisors and institutions are positioning in ETH for the tokenisation thematic, not just chasing beta.