The supply overhang that crushed alts has dissipated and is, for the first time in the asset class's history, manageable. Payouts to holders minus new supply, as a share of market value: 2021-22: -17% a year 2026: -2.9% Tokens paying holders more than they dilute them: 4% then, 17% now. Part of this is capital discipline. Better unlock management, maturing protocols, and revenue-funded buybacks. Tokens are starting to take on equity-like properties. The other part is demand. It's showing up. Tokenisation first, and eventually AI agentic commerce. Less drag, more demand. Structurally, crypto has never been in better shape. @RealVision

I (well, my agent) logged every tokenomics change across the 309 tokens that have sat in the Top 100 since 2021. Each one sourced to a governance vote or an announcement. Burns, buybacks, fee switches, emission cuts. Net of the changes that went against holders, they've gone from 10 a year in 2021-22 to 32 a year now. More than 3x. The trend is clear. Product-market fit remains paramount. But on its own, it won't be enough. Protocols need to show supply discipline and value accrual alongside it. Short vibes. Long fundamentals. @RealVision

NEW FINDINGS: We took a close look at MSCI’s effort to exclude Bitcoin treasury companies from major stock indexes. We found an internal project trail buried in a public document, years of ESG advocacy, and proposed rules that could reach far beyond Bitcoin. Our new paper, “Wall Street’s Invisible Committee,” documents what we uncovered and provides recommendations for policymakers. MSCI reports an astonishing $21 trillion benchmarked to its indexes. When its committees change which companies qualify, funds tracking those indexes must adjust their holdings. A methodology decision can trigger billions in reallocation. Here’s what we found. 𝟭. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁’𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗻𝗮𝗺𝗲. In 2025, MSCI proposed excluding Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATCOs) holding at least half their assets in digital assets. After substantial opposition, it shelved the proposal. It later returned this year with a broader, facially neutral test for “non-operating companies.” MSCI’s own simulation would exclude Strategy and Metaplanet. We examined the public consultation PDF and found something revealing in its embedded metadata. The source presentation’s internal file path includes— “Projects/DATCOs/Operating vs Non Operating” A proposal presented as a general classification rule retains a source-file path explicitly associated with the category targeted by the earlier exclusion effort. While metadata alone cannot prove the outcome was predetermined, it raises a direct question for MSCI. Were these criteria developed to classify companies consistently, or engineered to reach the same exclusions against digital asset companies through a broader rule? 𝟮. 𝗠𝗦𝗖𝗜 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗺 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 “𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼” 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿. We traced its public record back to an October 2021 article titled “Creeping Crypto.” MSCI publicly warned about cryptocurrency exposure entering equity portfolios, described most cryptocurrencies as “speculative investments with little evident utility,” and flagged Bitcoin’s Proof of Work as environmentally dangerous. They identified 26 exposed public companies and promoted tools for screening additional exposure. Singled out at the very bottom of their ESG rankings... was Strategy. While the article did not call for exclusions, it does establish that an internal belief at MSCI that Bitcoin and digital asset companies were an ESG concern four years before proposing to remove digital asset treasury companies. 𝟯. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗮 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗿𝘂𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀. CEO Henry Fernandez has repeatedly, publicly proclaimed the urgent importance of ESG investing. In 2021, he recounted urging bankers to “refuse to take a company public or do a bond offering” without a net-zero pledge. MSCI’s leadership also combined responsibility for ESG and index governance. Its then-head of indexes described an ambition for its flagship global index to become “green, one company at a time.” These statements do not prove the motive behind today’s proposal. They make the boundary between MSCI’s advocacy and its broad-market index decisions a serious governance question. 𝟰. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮’𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘆. The proposed test relies on “operating assets” without a sufficiently clear, reproducible classification framework. How should it treat a satellite awaiting launch? A mine under construction? Capital raised to build a factory? Our analysis shows how plausible interpretations could disadvantage emerging, strategic industries before they have the chance to compete. Americans buying broad-market funds deserve transparent rules, reproducible decisions, and meaningful accountability from the committees deciding what they own. Read the full findings and our recommendations below ↓

Pharma got the get-out-of-jail-free card. Profit from unmitigated harm. Now the AI labs want the same deal. Of course they do. Liability exemptions are never about safety. They are about capture. Socialize the downside, privatize the upside, call it innovation. At least Vance is saying the quiet part out loud.

After an extraordinary two-month rally, altcoin (ex-BTC & ETH) open interest (% of MC) is at the 98th percentile. Altcoin vs. BTC OI ratio is at the 97th percentile. Levels not seen since the 2024 and 2025 altcoin peaks. Meanwhile, BTC & ETH leverage is more benign. No imminent doom, but caution is warranted given the concentration risk in altcoin high flyers and high-beta names. @RealVision

Bear markets sharpen you. During the depths of H1, I did some of my best deep dives for @RealVision. @NEARProtocol is the standout L1 in the new regime for crypto where demand inflection meets supply discipline. By thoughtfully attacking crypto's largest unsolved or main pain points, namely interoperability and privacy. NEAR isn't competing head-to-head with the dominant L1's. Their success will be NEAR's success, and everything else they're doing on inference/private AI is a free option, given the team's AI lineage. Chances are these other product lines help re-rate the protocol higher over time.

The low $ 80k was the biggest cluster of long-term resistance - ETF, True Market Mean, LTH holder avg cost basis (@_Checkmatey_) Traditional TA; higher High, higher Low My volatility breakout model: 7/8 previous events since 2016 +41% median 6 months later.

We have never seen an altcoin-led crypto recovery off the lows before. I have been writing about the 'shift' at @RealVision this year. This is the thesis For a decade, crypto's entire focus was scaling the tech to onboard global finance. Token value was an afterthought, and where it wasn't an afterthought, it was actively suppressed. A hostile SEC made sure good teams and good founders never touched anything that looked like designing a token to accrue value, because that looked like a security. Tokenholders ate it. Retail died. Developers left. Then Ethereum gas fees topped $100 a transaction in 2021 and rang the top of that market. Scaling became the only thing that mattered. The industry delivered. We now have an oversupply of blockspace and transaction costs near zero, but that fight also produced an oversupply of protocols and tokens, diluting attention and value across the board. A wave of teams is now correcting for it: Hyperliquid's buybacks have compressed $HYPE supply ~7% in 90 days, Aerodrome has routed over $190M in fees back to lockers this year, Jupiter and NEAR have cut inflation and turned on buybacks of their own. That list is growing every month. Pair that with real demand. Tokenized real-world assets, ex-stablecoins, sit at $32.6B, up from ~$21B at the start of the year, through a tape where crypto prices were cut in half. Scaling was the story of the last cycle. Supply discipline meeting real demand is the story of this one.

Is crypto back? Everyone who quietly rebranded to AI last year seems to think so. Some thoughts on the market, and on @RealVision. Tis the season of humble brags on X, so here's mine. In reality, this was a pretty tough bear market. Crypto had to face the reality of a big drawdown outside of a general equities sell-off. But dogged analysis while the poo was flying thick and fast generated targeted calls and positioning insights that took the portfolio I run for the Pro tier up 2x in 2 months. I don't overtrade. I make high-conviction calls. My primary calls: 1. Derive ethereum:0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be, up 5x from the March Deep Dive 2. Zcash $ZEC (2 trades), up 5x from the April Deep Dive 3. NEAR Protocol $NEAR, up 2x from the June Deep Dive 4. The SCP vs BTC, and the DeFi vs SCP outperformance call 5. In July, deployed 75% of the cash built up since the Q3 2025 top 6. Lousy call on Circle $CRCL, down 20% At @RealVision, my Pro members' portfolio compounded at 40% p.a. for 3 years, including the 47% drawdown. Importantly, it has outperformed both NDX and BTC. Now for the reality check. Altcoin open interest is at the 91st percentile versus Bitcoin. Things are frothy. But the first move out of a bear can be like that without derailing the cycle. This is not the time to get super aggressive or reach for leverage. Expect more volatility. I never like to overtrade the start of a cycle, but taking some profits makes sense. I want to hold Quality names for the medium to long term. (ps: I am bringing out a Quality index/basket to help narrow the field for Alpha tier subscribers.) On the macro front, I am still concerned about the general state of global liquidity. DXY is strong, the yield curve is flattening, and real rates are climbing. We are late stage in the 5-year refi cycle. Bessent blinked, but it will take more to get through this. Crypto could easily see a 30%+ pullback which means (50%+ for many high flyers). But for long-term investors who are now waking up and need to take their crypto allocation from nothing to something (depending on risk tolerance), dips are for buying quality names. The structural tailwinds are coalescing. Some of this move is ahead of the data, but that's generally how markets work. Assets are pricing in what the agent economy + tokenisation looks like in 12 months, not today. Just a short comment on @RealVision. We have been around for 13+ years. After being force-fed the bile of BBG and CNBC for 20 years in TradFi, I saw straight away how transformative the platform was back in 2014 and became a foundational subscriber. I was a subscriber for almost a decade before joining @RaoulGMI to build out the crypto product. It's been an incredible 3 years. Whether as a strategist or a subscriber, I am lucky each day to read the phenomenal macro, equity, tech, AI, and geopolitics analysis from the team of independent strategists team: Raoul, @AndreasSteno, @RosenvoldGeo, and @DMattin. That's 5 strategists who often agree but, more importantly, often disagree. There is no 'house' view. If that upsets you, go become a client of Morgan Stanley, JPM or some brokerage with a conflict of interest. My lane is crypto. That's what I love, and I have never been more bullish on the secular trend that inspired me to leave the TradFi world years ago. Brutal, undignified, sleep-destroying. Best job I have ever had.

The underlying market structure of crypto shifted during this bear market. Tokenisation has been a meme for years, but starting last year it became tangible - we can see it. It's accelerating without the Clarity Act. The SEC's innovation guidelines give the industry 5 years to solidify it. The implications for crypto portfolios are massive. @RealVision

Crypto's internal dollar economy has expanded roughly 14x faster than the real one, and that's after a stablecoin slump this year. Imagine when agents arrive; what will this mean for monetary velocity? A financial era of Machine Velocity @RealVision

Onchain options is the new DeFi vertical. ethereum:0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be regularly accounts for 5% of Deribit's volume. Only the start; tokenisation, v3, all to come. Covered in @RealVision Pro portfolio since March.

Bitcoin and crypto will suck capital from every asset class. That's the trade. This market is roughly $3T today. Over the next 5-10 years I think it gets to $10-20T, and that capital has to come from somewhere. But a trade against everything is hard to track. So I distil it down to the two peers people frame Bitcoin against most: gold and technology stocks. Watching when momentum inflects from bearish to bullish against them after a long bear market is the simplest way to see the rotation happening in real time. On a weekly chart you can abstract away a lot of the day-to-day and even week-to-week volatility. The shift is underway. It won't be smooth, but the next several years will be crypto's most meaningful structural market. $BTC $XAU $NDAQ Tomorrow's report for @RealVision AlphaTier drops and in this report we're going to look at what a crypto allocation should look like in this new regime

Australia 2026. Real household income per person is up just 10.9% since 2010. The OECD average is 26.8%. We're one of the worst performers in the developed world. It's much worse if you have any brain, given the lying government inflation statistics. We have energy abundance. Yet we live in scarcity. We still have an entrepreneurial spine, buried under one of the largest public sectors of any OECD nation. We are overtaxed and underrepresented. Our sickcare system prizes subservience vs. health autonomy, fuelling a metabolic health crisis. It's a rule for thee, not for me, political class; exempting themselves from pension rules, freedom of speech regulations, and dangerous experimental medical intervention mandates, while getting extra tax breaks. This is the setup for Australia becoming the 21st century's Argentina. It's as if they want what's left of this country's productive class to leave.

A year ago on this @1MarkMoss show, I flagged a 30% correction. Got the timing right, underestimated how deep it would cut. At @RealVision I've been adding risk since July and went fully deployed on the August inflection. This time I'm hoping I've underestimated it in the other direction i.e. how big the next wave will be. Price will move well before the evidence. Folks are not prepared for what's coming with respect to debasement and the AI agentic economy. For me, it's less about timing, more about allocation and position size. Bitcoin and crypto will become a much larger slice of institutional portfolios. Thanks for having me on, Mark.

We’re at that point in the US fiscal story, late in a 5–6 year liquidity cycle. where MacGyver wakes up in the cargo hold.Pilots unconscious. Wing on fire. Cockpit door fused shut. All he’s got is a paperclip, a ping-pong ball, and a granola bar. Go Scott "MacGyver" Bessent.