_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️
@_Checkmatey_
Helping navigate #Bitcoin#'s volatility
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Onchain Analyst @_checkonchain
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this weekend feels like a polite pause for bears to change positioning
i realize bitcoin:native is at range highs / monster resistance level but think we're getting a push higher this week
now we wait
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please welcome the official @_bitview_ account 👋
@Darkfost_Coc has been following the project for a while now. we’ve had many great conversations and friendly debates around datasets, charts and ideas, and he’s already shared quite a few bitview charts on his own account
he very kindly reached out wanting to help give the project more visibility, and proposed taking care of a dedicated bitview account with charts, updates and insights
very thankful he stepped in and excited to see where this goes !
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"I remain strongly of the view that we’re in a bear-to-bull transition and I have come across very few tools in my suite to suggest otherwise."
- James Check (My favorite bitcoin analyst)
bitcoin:native is back above $81k.
After almost a year of bear market rallies and lower highs, the question on a lot of people's minds is: how do we know this current rally isn’t going to fail just like the last one?
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ digs into the data, presenting a confluence of evidence that we believe supports a genuine regime change out of the 2026 bear market.
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chatgpt astra's thoughts about the bedrock model and how it compares against other models:
"I think Bedrock is currently the best Bitcoin bottom model I know of."
"Bedrock is not just slightly better — it is conceptually a generation ahead"
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In other words, buy the whole bottom, and stop worrying about trying to time the pico bottom.
The majority buy when it feels safe to do so, which is during the euphoric bubbles.
The smart minority buy when nobody cares, during apathetic drawn down markets.
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Here's a counterintuitive Bitcoin FACT you probably haven't run into before😂👇
I recently saw someone claim that without Bitcoin's bubbles, it wouldn't be worth investing in since it would then miss out on all the epic gains.
So I removed ALL of the bubbles, as you know I've been doing with the Bubble-free power law.
Then I measured the 4-year growth rate. WITH bubbles vs WITHOUT:
2017: 109% vs 137%
2018: 84% vs 115%
2021: 35% vs 72%
2025: 17% vs 52%
- - -
👀Yes, you're reading that correctly. Delete the bubbles and Bitcoin's growth rate goes UP 🤯
Why? A bubble inflates your return on the way in, then wrecks it four years later when that top becomes your starting point. The 17% in 2025 is measuring from the 2021 mania. Take the mania out, it's 52%.
The manias were never where the gains came from. They're noise on top of an asset that has compounded faster than anything on earth for a decade WITHOUT them. They are an entirely different phase, and they come and go.
Stop planning around the bubbles, people. Plan around the orange line 🧡
NFA
-SW
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where is bitcoin’s middle ?
for quite some time now, the go-to was considered to be the true market mean
and yet since aug 2010, bitcoin has spent:
47.7% of days above cointime w. capitalized price and 63.7% above TMM
we may have found a new middle !
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@_DannyKnowles it’s remarkable how well this episode with @_Checkmatey_ has aged. The same tools used to spot a top heavy market at $110k proved valuable in identifying a bottom heavy market during this bear. You also called the $58k bottom.
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Bitcoin has been chopping sideways for several weeks, as the market digests a powerful rally off the lows.
At the same time, macro pressures are building, and Short-Term Holder profit-taking has picked up.
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines where the current sell-side is coming from, and how it compares with the investor behaviour we typically see in early bull markets.
Get the market update ->
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short term holders are a very dynamic and complex cohort as recently researched by @MattCrosbyPro, yet they're often represented as a single line
here's an attempt at something more representative using supply, capital, and various age limits
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Nym21 has been an OpenSats grantee since December 2024, with his grant renewed in July 2025. That support lets him work on the Bitcoin Research Kit full-time and keep it free to use, verify, and self-host.
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If Bitcoin is transitioning into a bull market, what should we actually be watching?
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ has put together a Bull Markets For Dummies guide: how bull markets progress, what causes them to eventually run out of steam, and the key onchain metrics we can use to track the journey.
Get it here →
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STH SOPR is one of our favourite metrics for spotting regime change.
In bear markets, rallies back into profit tend to get sold.
In bull markets, short sharp moves below break-even tend to become buy-the-dip setups.
The current structure is starting to look more like those early bull-market recoveries.
More in our latest piece →
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The Bitcoin market is chopping wood just below the 50-week MA as it digests a moderate up-tick in profit taking by both Short and Long-Term Holders.
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines why Bitcoin is holding ‘high-and-tight’ below the Bears’ Last Stand, and what the latest profit-taking, ETF flows and futures positioning tell us about the market.
Get the full article & market update video with a Premium subscription →
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One of the clearest signs of Bitcoin’s growth between cycles:
During the 2022 bear market lows, Realised Cap fell to ~$384B.
In the 2025-26 bear market, it never even dropped below $1T.
Realised Cap measures the amount of real dollars invested in BTC by pricing each coin based on when it last moved.
Despite another brutal bear market, Bitcoin’s underlying capital base is now more than 2.5x larger than it was at the depths of the last one.
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Bitcoin Twitter has the wild ability to turn a 5% price move into a 14-part explanation involving global liquidity, Japan, options wizardry and moon math.
Sometimes demand just exceeds supply. People want the orange coin.
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Bitcoin is taking another run at $82.5k, a level that could confirm a meaningful regime change if cleared.
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines why recent price action looks increasingly different from the 2025-26 bear, and what the “Quiet and Trending” framework tells us about the early stages of a new bull cycle.
Read today with a Premium subscription →
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If bitcoin:native has entered a new bull market, the 2025–26 bear market will be BY FAR the shallowest in Bitcoin’s history.
Historic drawdowns from ATH (approx):
🔴 2015: -85%
🔴 2019: -83%
🔴 2022: -75%
🟠 2026: -53%
Still a brutal drawdown by normal standards. For Bitcoin though? Surprisingly mild.
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A neat insight that I first heard from my good friend and legend @PermabullNino.
This chart shows Thermo-price (lowest red), which is the all-time-average production price for mined coins.
Each cycle, the bear has bottomed multiples higher, representing a monetary premium.
The first 2011 cycle bottomed on the Thermo-price at a 1x multiple. Then 2015 based above a 2x. The 2018 and 2022 bears bottomed around a 6x or 7x premium.
This cycles bear bottomed at around a 12x and we're back to a 16x.
Thew other observation is that then area under the oscillator curve is getting larger, suggesting a more sustained monetary premium is developing over production cost with time.
Tops have approached the 32x multiple ($313k today), but if this trend of rising floors continues, eventually the floor meets the top...and then shit gets really weird!
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@Dont4getLettuce @_Checkmatey_ @TheBitcoinLayer No, this is for subscribers of either @TheBitcoinLayer & @_checkonchain
part of a monthly series called The Big Picture that I do with @_Checkmatey_ in which we give a macro and bitcoin on-chain overview to both of our subscriber bases, this was #6#
join us as a TBL Pro!
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