The thumbrule that says that the 10-year treasury yield should be roughly equal to nGDP growth is based on a cherry-picked historical anomaly. It only held true during a period in the mid-to-late 1990s, in the aftermath of the Volcker monetary tightness (when the 10-yr rate was actually higher than nGDP growth). During the expansions of the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 2000s, and 2010s, the 10-year was typically 2%-3% points below nGDP growth. Today, that would suggest a 4%-5% yield. The claim that rates should be 6%-7% today b/c that's where nGDP growth is are even more dubious when considering current wage growth. For most of post-war history, 10-yr rates were 2%-3% below aggregate wage (COE) growth. That includes the boom of the late 1990s, which saw very strong growth. The numbers on that front may improve from here, but so far, they've been quite weak, which would suggest a 10-yr yield well below current levels.

When a company fails to deliver products that satisfy the customers who are paying for them, the customers stop showing up. The company loses its revenue, people get fired, and the whole thing eventually shuts down. It can be a stressful system to operate in, but it works beautifully to align incentives and create real accountability. In NYC Public Schools, that beautiful system gets completely inverted. When a school fails to deliver quality education, the customers (taxpayers) are forced to pay more into it through additional funding measures that get triggered to help lift up the underperformers. The highly-political, aggressively-unionized nature of the operation shields responsible parties from consequences, and the grift just continues on forever. Despite her experiences and the vulnerability she showed in her essay, Nikole Hannah-Jones still doesn't appreciate any of this.

If OpenAI were a stock, it would be well off of its earlier lows right now, and probably making new highs. Can't speak for anyone else, but I've noticed a significant increase in the quality of its output and a significant drop in its hallucinations over the last few months.

"We're going to stick a loud, ugly data center near your home. The data center will provide AI compute that will make it easier for your employer to fire you." Hard to think of a technology that is set to face greater political peril. Sam Altman better hurry up with those cures!