Jon Hartley(@Jon_Hartley_):It's been 2 years since the Sahm recession rule indicator triggered in July 2024 because the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, which was 0.53 percentage points higher than its 12-month low of 3.4% set in early 2023. No U.S. recession since.

Jon Hartley

@Jon_Hartley_

Macroeconomist-Assistant Econ Prof @UTAustin SCL. @HooverInst Visiting Fellow @CapAndFreedom. @CivitasInst @FREOPP @Mercatus @EconClubofMiami @Stanford Econ PhD

Joined January 2012

22.5K Following 20.5K Followers

Jon Hartley@Jon_Hartley_

2026.08.27 18:34

It's been 2 years since the Sahm recession rule indicator triggered in July 2024 because the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, which was 0.53 percentage points higher than its 12-month low of 3.4% set in early 2023. No U.S. recession since.