CEO/CIO at @LuptonCapital and @FirstWaveFund, long-biased hedge fund, focused on undervalued growth stocks that can triple within 3 years, we love big catalysts
$APP now trading below 10x 2027 ebitda if you assume they do $9B ebitda next year and you include the $10B+ of cash they'll generate over the next 6 quarters.
$APP will grow ebitda by 50-55% in 2026 and 30-40% in 2027... which means this current multiple / valuation makes no sense.
Q3 alt data looks strong... pixel growth has been 3% WoW for the past 2 weeks... strong signal for future ecommerce growth... now heading into $APP's strongest months... very good chance we see $APP beat their Q3 guidance and consensus by 400-600 bps which implies 10-12% QoQ growth.
NFA.
DYOR.
Just reviewed most recent alt data for $RDDT and $APP ...
$RDDT
Consensus (sell side) is at +49% YoY revenue growth for Q3
Alt data is showing +59% YoY revenue growth for Q3
$APP
Consensus (sell side) is at +47% YoY revenue growth for Q3
Alt data is showing +52% YoY revenue growth for Q3
With regards to valuations, coming into the week...
$RDDT is trading at 18x NTM EPS (not including cash)
$APP is trading at 16x NTM EPS (not including cash).
$APP is currently trading around $300 with massive support in the $290s from 200w ema, VWAP from 2023 lows and the .618 fibs retracement from 2023 lows
NFA.
DYOR.