We had a great call with $AAOI management yesterday... we were very bullish going into the call... we're even more bullish after the call and thus increased our position by approximately ~15%.
Management reiterates that demand is not the problem.. it's all about capacity which is why they're doing the $600M ATM offering... they need to continue increasing capacity for the overwhelming demand they see coming over the next few years.
It certainly doesn't sound like $AAOI will have any problems hitting their mid-2027 targets (management sounds extremely confident) which implies at least $3.5-4.0B revenues for CY2027. I think there's a decent chance they do $4.5-5.0B revenues next year.
$AAOI is already sitting on 2 LTAs from hyperscalers and said they could have several more if they had the capacity.
Reading between lines, seeing another ATM offering and knowing their desire to continue building out capacity in Texas... I'll be surprised if they're not doing at least $550-600M revenues per month by end of 2027 with a decent chance they're doing $650-700M (or more).
Assuming CY2026 revenues come in close to $1.1 billion... I think the odds are increasing that $AAOI does at least 300% revenue growth next year (CY2027) followed by at least 80-120% growth in 2028.
If $AAOI does $4-5B revenues next year and then on track to double that number in 2028... I fully expect this to be a $500-600 stock in the next 18-24 months.
We own at least 5-6 stocks that I believe can be 5-baggers within the next 2 years... $AAOI is one of them... obviously they need to execute really well and the upside will be significant if they do :)
NFA.
DYOR.
*We are long $AAOI at
@FirstWaveFund