Managing Partner, Founder, Publisher; Vertical Research Advisory, LLC. Top Performing Investment & Economic Research (35 yrs). Podcasts. American Capitalist
This reset is giving investors the next great opportunity to construct the portfolio they want for the bull market of our times. That’s what this Innovation Revolution represents.
The data, post midterms, is as good as it gets. From now through the next 15 months, since 1950 the S&P 500 has put up an average gain of 29.9% with profits in 19/19 years. That’s a high probability repeating pattern.
We see this sell off as classically pre-war driven, because it’s a near certainty that it’s coming. This reminds of the adage “when missiles fly, stocks are a buy”.
This will be the most expected and discounted military action of maybe ever. Hedge funds and algos have flipped entirely from long to short and if you know their group-think history, you know what this time frame represents.
Best of success all. 🚀
No, we haven’t liquidated and no, we have no plans to do so.
Selling at important seasonality lows…just as hedge funds have exited…is not how we’ve outperformed the market in 19/22 years.
This decline is about one thing IMO; a resumption of kinetic action with Iran, because it looks likely.
And that means this selling pressure is taking place in advance of it. To that I say “when missiles fly, stocks are a buy”.
We’re primary trend followers and we use drawdowns to add to core positions. We’ll soon be doing that again.
Good luck to those short the market. You’re going to need it into the midterms. This remains a melt-up environment.
There’s a zero percent chance we’d be short this market. 🚀