Kalshi Politics
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JOHN CORNYN: Ken Paxton was an "albatross around the whole ticket" (CNN)
JUST IN: James Talarico has filed to run for Senate re-election in 2032
BREAKING: Ron DeSantis’ odds to win the 2028 Republican nomination rise to 19% — up 14% over the last 24 hours
BREAKING: Gadi Eizenkot has a 54% chance to be the next Prime Minister of Israel
BREAKING: Republicans are favored in only 43 Senate states (as of 8:48 PM ET)
NEW ALL-TIME HIGH: James Talarico’s odds rise to above 90% (as of 8:05 PM ET)
BREAKING: Texas Senate shifts from Lean D to Likely D
CBS: “Another thing I think is really interesting is when you look at the volume, when you look at where traders are looking at”
Anthony Salvanto and Nicole Kagan break down where people are trading the most in the Senate and the House
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JUST IN: Abdul El-Sayed has a 79% chance to win the Michigan Senate race
Voter turnout drops ~1 percentage point for every inch of rain above normal on Election Day
Odds of rain tomorrow per Kalshi markets:
☀️ New York City: <1%
☀️ Los Angeles: <1%
🌧️ Chicago: 84%
🌧️ Houston: 87%
☀️ Phoenix: <1%
☀️ Philadelphia: 1%
🌧️ San Antonio: 92%
🌧️ Dallas: 88%
🌧️ Austin: 95%
🌤️ Indianapolis: 26%
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NEW MARKET: "Midterms: Biggest blue wave since 2008?"
BREAKING: Democrats’ odds to control the Senate rise to their all-time high at 74%
NEW ALL-TIME HIGH: 74% chance James Talarico wins the Texas Senate race
The market never sleeps
JUST IN: Total volume for Senate general elections is approaching $200 million
The top 2 Senate races (Texas and Michigan) make up almost half of the total volume
MAJOR SHIFT: People on Kalshi's markets estimate 34 of the 35 2026 Senate races to shift LEFT of their 2024 Presidential Election margin
Maine is the only state traders forecast to shift 4 pts. RIGHT
Average Senate shift left: D+12.7
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LIVE: SENATE CONTROL ODDS
JUST IN: David Jolly’s odds to win the Florida Governor race increase to 25%
BREAKING: Abdul El-Sayed has a 69% chance to win the Michigan Senate race
MIDTERMS HUB SENATE RATING CHANGE:
Kansas:
🟨 Lean R -> Toss-up
