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Kunal Doshi
@Kunallegendd
Research @blockworksres | prev @thespartangroup | Views are my own
Joined January 2022
2.1K Following    1.6K Followers
Two days into @pumpcade's Cade Cups, the early metrics have been extremely encouraging. Yesterday's Round of 16 matches attracted 1.3K unique participants who placed 12.6K bets. Across just 4 games since launch, users have wagered 76.6M dollars. While the volume is denominated in testnet dollars rather than real money, it provides an encouraging early signal of PMF. In the Cade Cup, Pumpcade charged a flat 3% fee, although this will likely evolve with the introduction of congestion based fees. Even if the protocol ultimately captures just 1% of its current testnet wagering volume, which appears achievable as it expands across more sports, markets and other real time events with live data feeds, it would generate roughly $345K in monthly fees. At today's valuation, that implies an FDV to fees multiple of roughly 7.3x. For comparison, annualizing June fee numbers, Polymarket trades at roughly 17.8x sales, while Kalshi trades at approximately 12.8x sales based on its rumoured $40B valuation round. The bull case speaks for itself. And that’s just with a 1% assumption. Excited to see the platform continue to improve and deliver the gamified experience suited for micro-betting which is growing as a sector itself.
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