Lakshmi Sreekumar
@LSREnergy
It's not that serious. Lighten up already.
Oil. Macro. Geopolitics.
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The WSJ lays out what keeping Gulf oil flowing actually involves:
-50,000 US troops, 20 Navy ships, two carriers across the region.
-$2–3 Billion USD/month or 67-100 Million USD/day above normal military spending
-Aircraft, warships and crews under mounting strain.
-Some US officials see the situation as untenable without more international help. Coalition efforts have failed.
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Here's the math on the history:
CENTCOM’s cumulative figures -> implied MBPD exits
Jul 20: 450m bbls -> ~5.6–6.0 MBPD since early May
Sep 19: >1bn bbls-> ~9.0 MBPD
Oct 8: >1.25bn bbls -> ~13.2 MBPD
Oct 25*: >1.5bn bbls -> ~14.7 MBPD
So that puts the last two weeks ~ 14.7 MBPD, directionally consistent with the pick up we saw since Oct 9th/10th (in GoO flows).
*Rounded totals; assumes consistent counting.
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