The Big Short vs the Nostradamus of AI
Michael Burry has been short Micron $MU since July 2nd, adding to the position again this week
Leopold Aschenbrenner was reported to have opened call options in the following, all expiring October 2nd:
• Micron $MU: $44M
• SanDisk $SNDK: $41M
• Intel $INTC: $11M combined position
• Marvell $MRVL: $11M combined position
Here's the scoreboard:
• Burry Tracker is up 2% YTD on Autopilot
• Leopold Tracker up 84% since March on Autopilot
• $MU is up 2% since Burry's short opened
• Today’s price, Leopold's bet would already be profitable by ~$74/share
Leopold’s next 13F filing releases November 16 and then we see how his fund held up
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Update: Rosenblatt initiated SanDisk with a Buy rating and a $2,400 price target
$SNDK is now up ~636% since Leopold Aschenbrenner disclosed a $12.9M stake
He first disclosed the position in November 2025 at ~$254/share
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Breaking: SanDisk is surging today after Rosenblatt initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $2,400 price target, citing AI's growing need for NAND storage
Aschenbrenner first disclosed a $12.9M position in SanDisk Q3 2025
$SNDK added ~$16,600,000,000 in market cap today
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Investigation into Situational Awareness's downfall expands
Jane Street was an investor in Leopold Aschenbrenner's fund, and lost $15B in July when the AI selloff took the fund down with it
JPMorgan was one of Situational Awareness's key lenders. Last month it cut the fund off entirely, ending its lending relationship after the losses
Now the Fed and the Bank of England are asking global banks how exposed they are to trading firms like Jane Street and Citadel Securities, the firm that bought Aschenbrenner's portfolio in the fire sale, per FT
Last month, the SEC already subpoenaed four of Wall Street's biggest banks over the collapse:
• Goldman Sachs
• JPMorgan
• Citigroup
• Bank of America
The Fed, the Bank of England, and the SEC are all asking questions about the same fund now
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Leopold Aschenbrenner doubled down on a company founded in 2005 last quarter
He added 115% more to the position he took in Q4 2025
ProPetro Holding $PUMP, they've been pumping high-pressure fluid into oil wells since before their 2017 IPO
What changed is PROPWR, their push into on-site power generation for AI data centers
Here's what you need to know:
• Long-term, 60-megawatt power contract locked with a major AI hyperscaler
• 350 megawatts in total contracted capacity across the segment
• His stake is now worth $28.1M
• Still a small percentage of their business model next to their core hydraulic fracturing business
Also worth keeping a mind on:
• Morgan Stanley started coverage Monday with an Equal-Weight and a $13 target
• Stock sits 43% off its April high
• Institutions still own 85% of the float
While everyone is buying chip companies, Leopold bought the company selling the generators to keep them running
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Breaking: OpenAI ahead of IPO explores funding at $1.2T valuation
Making OpenAI the 11th largest company behind Tesla $TSLA
Leopold Aschenbrenner's complete updated holdings including newly added option calls
Top tier:
• SanDisk $SNDK [Long, 28.1%]
• Micron $MU [Long, 27.6%]
Second tier:
• Bloom Energy $BE [Long, 9.4%]
• Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM [Long, 6.3%]
• Nebius $NBIS [Long, 6.1%]
Third tier (~2-4% each):
• CoreWeave $CRWV [Long]
• Core Scientific $CORZ [Long]
• STMicroelectronics $STM [Long]
• Applied Digital $APLD [Long]
• Riot Platforms $RIOT [Long]
• SharonAI Holdings $SHAZ [Long]
• IREN $IREN [Long]
Moonshot tier (~0-0.9% each):
• CleanSpark $CLSK [Long]
• Keel Infrastructure $KEEL [Long]
• Solaris Energy Infrastructure $SEI [Long]
• WhiteFiber $WYFI [Long]
• Bitdeer Technologies $BTDR [Long]
• T1 Energy $TE [Long]
• Hive Digital Technologies $HIVE [Long]
• Babcock & Wilcox $BW [Long]
• ProPetro Holding $PUMP [Long]
• Vishay Intertechnology $VSH [Long]
• Cerebras Systems $CBRS [Long]
New options bets (Sep 10-11, ~$315M in premiums):
• AMD $AMD [Call]
• Bloom Energy $BE [Call]
• CoreWeave $CRWV [Call]
• SK Hynix [Call]
• SanDisk $SNDK [Call]
• Intel $INTC [Call]
• Roundhill Memory ETF $DRAM [Call]
Private companies:
• Anthropic ~$5B
• Fluidstack $830M
• Source Foundry $500M
• MatX $500M
• Physical Intelligence $1B
Full exits:
• Nvidia $NVDA [Put] - Covered entirely
• Oracle $ORCL [Put] - Covered entirely
• Broadcom $AVGO [Put] - Covered entirely
• AMD $AMD [Put] - Covered entirely
• Micron $MU [Put] - Covered entirely
• Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM [Put] - Covered entirely
• ASML $ASML [Put] - Covered entirely
• Intel $INTC [Put] - Covered entirely
• Corning $GLW [Put] - Covered entirely
Summary: Every semiconductor hedge is gone. He's back with fresh call options on the same memory and compute names. Per his Q2 2026 13F, private investment reports, and CNBC/FT on the new options activity
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What could've been if Leopold never used leverage
Don't do leverage kids
One of the more interesting things happening on Autopilot rn is Leopold Aschenbrenner's hedge fund nearly blew up
Yet his tracker still has $26,000,000 of retail capital trading alongside it
And it's still up 68% since inception
It seems retail investors want access to Leopold's ideas, not necessarily his risk structure
So even as Leopold plays around with leverage, retail can still tap into his expertise by simply owning the underlying stocks
Same thesis, very different risk
Ultimately both are making the same bet: stocks go up
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One of the more interesting things happening on Autopilot rn is Leopold Aschenbrenner's hedge fund nearly blew up
Yet his tracker still has $26,000,000 of retail capital trading alongside it
And it's still up 68% since inception
It seems retail investors want access to Leopold's ideas, not necessarily his risk structure
So even as Leopold plays around with leverage, retail can still tap into his expertise by simply owning the underlying stocks
Same thesis, very different risk
Ultimately both are making the same bet: stocks go up
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Breaking: Michael Burry says OpenAI and Anthropic are faking the AI warnings due to slow growth ahead of IPOs
Below are his reasonings:
1. LLMs are not AI and won't be AGI. There is nothing AI to slow down.
2. Competition is coming up fast, slowing benefits incumbents.
3. IPOs need hype & puffery; "we are so awesome it could become dangerous" is hype & puffery
4. Cover for real uncontrollable slowing growth as IPOs look to be pushed out
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Leopold is about to get finished off for good
Jul 29: Situational Awareness gets margin called after 4x leveraged AI bets blow up
Jul 30: Citadel acquires his entire public portfolio in a fire sale
Jul 31: Leopold gives up all leverage, closes every short, tells investors "we let you down"
Sep 11: News outlets announce he's back. Buying options on AI and memory stocks
Sep 12: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei publishes an essay calling for the entire AI industry to slow down
Markets open today and Leopold's option holdings plummet 5.7% to 9.0%
• $AMD: -5.7%
• $BE: -7.3%
• $CRWV: -9.0%
• $SKHY: -7.5%
• $SNDK: -6.2%
• $DRAM: -6.8%
Higher ups don't want him winning
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Two years ago, Leopold Aschenbrenner was fired from OpenAI for exposing AI companies are ignoring the safety risks of AI
We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so.
Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training.
You can read the full post here:
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Breaking: Situational Awareness’ lending has been cut off by JPMorgan
Leopold Aschenbrenner has brought in Clear Street to help rebuild the fund after AI losses
New: Leopold found an alternative to leverage, per CNBC
Situational Awareness is active in options market and he’s buying call options in the following:
• Advanced Micro Devices $AMD
• Bloom Energy $BE
• SanDisk $SNDK
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New: Leopold found an alternative to leverage, per CNBC
Situational Awareness is active in options market and he’s buying call options in the following:
• Advanced Micro Devices $AMD
• Bloom Energy $BE
• SanDisk $SNDK
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Another Anthropic employee saying he’d burn his equity if we make it out alive
Is the advancement of AI worth it at this point
@jillgun I would burn my equity to the ground in a heartbeat for a 1% higher chance we make it out of this situation alive. I expect a great many of my colleagues across the industry would as well.
I promise you, we are actually just fucking scared, it's not galaxy brained marketing.
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Breaking: Situational Awareness increased its stake in a 159 year old company by 49% last quarter
Everything you need to know about Leopold's position:
• 2,027,451 shares, worth $28,587,059
• Added 673,551 shares from Q4 2025
• One of the smallest positions in the fund
Founded 1867, it makes industrial boilers and power generation equipment, now pushing into AI data center power through its FastPower program
The company is Babcock & Wilcox $BW
Why it's one to watch:
• Needham initiated coverage August 31st with a Buy rating and $20 price target
• Backlog is $2.6 billion
• The stock is down 66% from its peak in May
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Leopold Aschenbrenner on why AI safety is key
The last 30 seconds are the most important
This will be one of the most important reads of your life
This will be one of the most important reads of your life
Leopold Aschenbrenner invested in a company that didn't exist three years ago
Position size:
• 1,757,600 shares worth $68,282,760
• Up 145.9% since first appearing in the fund
• 16th largest holding of 26
Incorporated in October 2023, it builds and runs the data centers and GPU clusters that power AI training and inference, running Nvidia's newest chips for companies building large language models
The company is WhiteFiber, Inc. $WYFI
Here's why it's worth watching:
• Cantor Fitzgerald just upgraded shares to Overweight and raised its price target to $36
• Remaining performance obligations hit $1.01 billion in the second quarter, up 9% in one quarter
• $NVDA's newest B300 and Vera Rubin GPUs are being deployed at WhiteFiber's data centers for customers including Prime Intellect and Baseten
Also, WhiteFiber is targeting a September 30 ready-for-service date for its $160 million Paris deployment
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Update: Leopold Aschenbrenner's long-shot holdings
Moonshot tier (~0-0.9% each):
• CleanSpark $CLSK [Long]
• Keel Infrastructure $KEEL [Long]
• Solaris Energy Infrastructure $SEI [Long]
• WhiteFiber $WYFI [Long]
• Bitdeer Technologies $BTDR [Long]
• T1 Energy $TE [Long]
• Hive Digital Technologies $HIVE [Long]
• Babcock & Wilcox $BW [Long]
• ProPetro Holding $PUMP [Long]
• Vishay Intertechnology $VSH [Long]
• Cerebras Systems $CBRS [Long]
Summary: A mix of bitcoin miners, power generators, a solar manufacturer, a chip components maker, and an oilfield services company, per his Q2 2026 13F
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Leopold Aschenbrenner's biggest position outside AI chips is still down big
The stock trades under $5 and is -60% from its high
Leopold bought 6.9M shares in Q4 2025, increased to 19.9M the next quarter, and per the latest filing he has a total of 26.5M shares
Here's why he's investing in $KEEL:
• CEO and COO bought $525K in the past 3 weeks
• 7 of 8 analysts rate it Buy, $6.25 target, 87% upside
• Exited Bitcoin mining, converting Moses Lake into an AI data center by 2027
• Trades 42% below his $5.74 cost basis
• Controls 2.2 GW power pipeline across PA, WA, Quebec, interconnections secured
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Breaking: Keel Infrastructure is spiking as its Sherbrooke data center project advances through formal city council review
Leopold Aschenbrenner disclosed a ~$151,830,996 position in Q2 2026
$KEEL has added ~$133,000,000 in market cap today
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