Dawson Lee | Silicon & Infra Alpha
@LiDaosen
30-yr Optics & Semiconductor Engineer. turned 8x Founder. Now Canadian buy-side investor hunting physical bottlenecks in AI infrastructure. Silicon,
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1/5 The expert call confirms Intel ( $INTC )EMIB-T assembly yield sits at 40.5%. While eliminating full-wafer silicon interposers cuts theoretical BOM cost by ~40% vs CoWoS-L, scrapping 60% of completed packages destroys host wafer economics. A 6x CTE mismatch between silicon bridges (2.6 ppm/°C) and organic ABF (16 ppm/°C) causes warpage during bonding. CoWoS-L retains 80%+ share through 2028.
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Even if V4.1F lands around 43-45, the real structural divergence isn’t the benchmark score—it’s the Intelligence-per-Dollar & Tokens-per-Watt equation.
Meta’s Muse Spark Open requires an 816B footprint (42B active) just to scratch 39, burning massive multi-node interconnect overhead and blowing up KV Cache memory bandwidth.DeepSeek’s architectural moat continues to be algorithmic compression: using MLA and fine-grained routing to extract frontier-grade reasoning at a fraction of the serving TCO.
Benchmarks measure capability; markets price inference economics.
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