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Carlos
@0xcarlosg
research @blockworks
1.7K Following    3.3K Followers
Many are fading the importance of Hyperliquid's priority fees, which are now going toe to toe with HIP-3 revenue. Excited for next week, where we break down the mechanism, adoption, and growth scenarios in what should be our best Hyperliquid report yet.
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BTC is as oversold relative to the Nasdaq as it has ever been. The next few months could offer a generational entry opportunity. Fantastic piece from Luke on why the setup for Bitcoin returns over a 1-3 year horizon is increasingly compelling.
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The Transparency Alliance grows to 70+ participants. Making the Token Transparency Framework the benchmark for disclosure across token markets.
Options flow on Derive this month has been telling three very different stories. ETH is the conviction long: +$2.4M net bullish premium, mostly put underwriting between $1.8k and $2k and synthetic longs. Positive flows every single week. BTC came in hot with an early month bull put spread, went quiet, then started chasing ATM calls once spot pushed toward $66k. +$2.0M overall. HYPE is the interesting one: -$0.9M. Overwriters sold the $71 top almost perfectly, and dip buyers have been fighting the tape ever since.
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If you want to understand why retail sentiment is at all-time lows, these two charts explain most of it. There are fewer tokens worth >$250M today than at any point since early 2021. Every valuation tier above $250M peaked in Nov 2021 and never recovered. Meanwhile, the number of tokens >$1M did make new highs, peaking in Dec 2024. Pumpfun and the launchpad era created more tokens than ever, but the liquidity to sustain them never showed up. The pyramid got wider at the base and thinner at the top. Tokens by threshold (cycle peak → Jun '26): >$1M: 3,648 (Dec '24) → 2,442 (−33%) >$50M: 728 (Nov '24) → 358 (−51%) >$100M: 484 (Nov '24) → 217 (−55%) >$250M: 288 (Nov '21) → 110 (−62%) >$1B: 123 (Nov '21) → 45 (−63%) For most retail participants this is brutal: the median token fights against thousands of newly created competitors each day for less liquidity, which is the PvP environment we've been living in. The flip side: there's never been a better time to be a fundamental investor in crypto. As consolidation plays out, you just need to pick a handful of winners that can eventually grow into multi-billion dollar valuations. Methodology note: this covers all 54k assets CoinGecko has ever listed, including 36k dead or delisted ones, so survivorship bias doesn't flatter the counts. I took month-end market caps from Jan 2020 to Jun 2026 and excluded anything that isn't a unique crypto-native asset: stablecoins, wrapped assets, LSTs, lending receipts, and tokenized RWAs (e.g., ETH counts once; WETH and stETH don't count at all). ~10.7k unique assets finished at least one month >$1M between Jan 2020 and Jun 2026.
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While revenues across the broader trading platform landscape remain depressed YoY, @fomo revenue has steadily crept back up to near all time highs. The platform boasts around 15k daily active wallets and has generated $4.3M in revenue in the past 30 days.
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> $3.5M run rate, growing 29% MoM business > raise $4M from internet capital markets - half institutional, half retail at a $9M valuation > now anyone with an internet connection can participate at ~the same price on @solana THIS IS WHAT INTERNET CAPITAL MARKETS LOOKS LIKE
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going to add my two cents here i believe ppl are generally upset with base because you guys pick & choose what you want to support onchain, because you never know what is going to work and what isnt going to work so it isnt as simple as objectively determining what is positive sum beforehand for example, base did a big push on creator coins, you even directly bought balaji's coin, but base was not as supportive of memecoins, especially the ones that were doing a lot of volume onchain and could have benefitted from exchange listings earlier, but the creator coin & memecoin charts ended up looking near identical, with most of the creator coin charts not doing nearly as well as a lot of the largest memes on base - i personally think there are some unique reasons for why they didnt work and will work in the future but thats for another post from my pov there are two different ways to value crypto assets, one is based on the fundamentals of the underlying business, and the other is more intangible value determined by the community of users of the network and driven by attention/momentum/belief etc hyperliquid is a great business that makes real revenues and is valued in part because of those revenues, but it also trades at a premium because of the collective belief that their users have in the network and their future plans to execute on that vision bitcoin on the other hand, makes no revenue, but is the largest crypto asset by market cap because it trades purely on the collective belief that it is a better store of value than depreciating fiat currencies and the network grew so large that it became a self-fulfilling prophecy ethereum is somewhere in between in that it does make real revenues but if you simply valued it purely off of those revenues as you would a tech stock it would trade 95% lower, ethereum also has some intangible value determined by the network of cypherpunks who are majority stakeholders of the network, and they believe that its value as an asset is more than what you would come to conclude on based off of purely p/e ratios tokenization, stablecoins, perpetuals, and prediction markets have been crypto's greatest success stories to date, tokenization in particular has been so successful because it is one of the only ways to accurately put a dollar value on this intangible value of culture and attention memecoins are denigrated by a lot of the corporate entities in crypto, but i think what a lot of people fail to realize is that the same intangible value that drove bitcoin and ethereum to be the #1# & #2# largest assets in crypto is the same intangible value that attracts retail to speculating on memecoins, doge sits at $11B and has outlasted a majority of coins over the past decade, its value is purely derived from how internet natives value culture and memetics on the internet do i think its important to uplift and support protocols in defi/rwas/consumer etc etc? yes, but its just as important to recognize what your users are interested in trading, the best analogy i can make is that if you are a mayor of a city and you have patrons who want to go to nightclubs or go to the casino or go to bars, you would not exclude this activity because you only want people to build businesses like banks, restaurants, corner stores, bookstores etc etc. - for an L1 to thrive it needs to have a diverse ecosystem of all things, and it is clear from the data that onchain trading volumes directly positively impact the native blockchain, whether thats in bringing more attention to the chain, or increasing fee revenues, or increasing revenues of underlying infra providers, or attracting new builders to create new products - best example of this is how bonk revitalized solana at the lows & was a very core reason that trading activity came back onchain + the main reason the first set of solana mobile phones sold out all L1s & L2s are social networks with their own ecosystems and their own culture, with permissionless networks you cannot control what people build or trade, but you can find ways to provide support across the board and contribute to ideating on how to make trends more sustainable
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Interesting perspective, and I agree stablecoins make sense everywhere. I’ve usually thought the case for stablecoins is more immediately obvious outside the US, though not necessarily because of payment efficiency. When people say Americans have it so good, they mean Americans rarely have to think about inflation the way someone in Argentina (or Turkey, Venezuela, etc.) does. The biggest stablecoin use case ex-US is, and will continue to be, permissionless access to dollars.
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I don't think people appreciate how much payments suck in the US. People often say stablecoins make sense for people ex-US because it's so good here, but I don't agree with that. It's actually better almost everywhere else. Payments take forever, are expensive, and are insanely complicated. It's kind of wild being a US citizen and going almost anywhere else. Seriously everywhere, from South America to the UK. Stablecoins make sense here, I promise you. It's why the banking lobby hates them so much.
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Thinking about this a bit, I doubt growth mode ends anytime soon. TradFi perps are still early, and liquidity begets liquidity. It's far more valuable for TradeXYZ / HL to keep expanding their lead than to risk losing flow to cheaper venues at this stage. Even if growth mode eventually ends, don't think the 9bps standard rate is ever back on the table.
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TradeXYZ has now flipped Hyperliquid’s native markets in daily perp volume for a third consecutive day. TradeXYZ markets are still in growth mode, meaning all-in fees discounted ≥90% (0.9bps base taker vs 9bps standard), split 50/50 with Hyperliquid. Has anyone modeled the incremental HL revenue once growth mode ends? Wonder how much of this flow survives a 10x increase in fees.
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ok that was faster than I expected ✅
Uniswap’s most successful chain deployment ever? Robinhood Chain is already doing >$500M in daily volume, trailing only Ethereum L1 across Uniswap deployments. My guess is that it becomes Uniswap’s largest chain by volume within two weeks.
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TradeXYZ has now flipped Hyperliquid’s native markets in daily perp volume for a third consecutive day. TradeXYZ markets are still in growth mode, meaning all-in fees discounted ≥90% (0.9bps base taker vs 9bps standard), split 50/50 with Hyperliquid. Has anyone modeled the incremental HL revenue once growth mode ends? Wonder how much of this flow survives a 10x increase in fees.
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Uniswap’s most successful chain deployment ever? Robinhood Chain is already doing >$500M in daily volume, trailing only Ethereum L1 across Uniswap deployments. My guess is that it becomes Uniswap’s largest chain by volume within two weeks.
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A deeply underappreciated advantage of ownership coins is that investors only have to underwrite the fundamentals of the business. For 95%+ of tokens, you spend nearly as much time analyzing whether the token captures value as you do analyzing the protocol itself. Picking the right business is already hard enough. If being right on the fundamentals still does not guarantee value accrual to the token, that asset deserves a significant discount.
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metadao has been doing a great job refining the raise process private roadshow to gauge interest, book building, & customizable allocations have been big this is table stakes in tradfi for a reason metadao ICOs are consistently the easiest + fastest deals for us to underwrite
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🚨 NEW ATH FOR ONCHAIN GACHAS 🚨 For the *fourth* month in a row, gacha spend hit another ATH in June at $324.6M (34% MoM growth)! The top 8 TCG platforms by June spend: 1) @Collector_Crypt - $209.5M (ATH) 2) @Courtyard_io - $54.5M 3) @phygitals - $21.1M 4) @Beezie - $17.8M (ATH) 5) @mnstr - $12.5M (ATH) 6) @renaissxyz - $5.6M (ATH) 7) @gacha_game_ - $2.5M (ATH) 8) @dyli_io - $1.1M Tokenized collectibles continue to be one of crypto's fastest-growing consumer applications!
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