Controversial take, and certainly a contrarian one, but I think the Bank of Canada rate hike was the right move.
I say that despite the terrible September employment report, which showed the economy losing 68,000 jobs after another 42,000 were lost in August, with unemployment rising to 6.5%. That clearly argues for caution. But beneath the headline, September’s weakness was disproportionately public-sector driven, while private-sector employment actually increased.
Meanwhile, credit conditions remain strong and money supply continues to expand. M2 by itself isn't a reason to raise rates, but when money and credit are expanding alongside resilient private-sector activity and persistent inflationary pressures, the combination becomes harder to ignore. The Bank is essentially choosing between two risks: overtightening into a weakening labour market or allowing relatively loose financial conditions to reignite inflation. I think the latter is now the bigger risk. If you disagree, look at the Canadian bank stocks.