Alphabet misses. $GOOG -> Revenue $127.6B vs Est. $127.9B -> EPS $2.12 vs. Est. $3.01 -> Operating Income $40.6B vs Est. $43.2B -> Cloud Revenue $30.7B vs Est. $29.1B -> CapEx $51.4B vs Est. $55.8B Disclosure, own a small position for clients.

Microsoft kills it. $MSFT -> EPS $4.92 Adjusted EPS $4.89, est. $4.73 ->Revenue $92.28B, est. $90.63B ->Operating income $45.92B, est. $43.92B ->Cloud revenue $63.9B, est. $61.62B ->Azure revenue ex-FX +48%, est. +44.8% -> Capex $39.37B, est. $45.93B Disclosure, a core holding for clients.

My take-away from the FOMC. Something that may be missed and worth paying attention to. Beth Hammack has been consistently hawkish and also dissented for a hike at the July meeting. But this was Lisa Cook's first dissent since joining the Fed in 2022, and she dissented for tighter policy. That's meaningful in my opinion. You now have a Governor plus a regional Fed president saying, essentially, waiting carries greater inflation risk than hiking. And importantly, the hawkish concern appears broader than just the two dissenters. CNBC notes that Lorie Logan and Neel Kashkari had dissented for hikes in July, although they voted with the majority today. So 10–2 understates the hawkish constituency.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index jumped 7.5 points in October to 91.7 (from a revised 84.2), the highest since June and the largest monthly gain since May 2025. Present Situation +8.6 to 120.4. Expectations +6.9 to 72.6 (still well below 80).

Love this. So many benefits, road safety, accessibility etc. I'll buy one when it can drop me off at the office, drive home and my wife can use it, then it will come pick me up. Will save me a lot of money - getting rid of one car, insurance, parking, maintenance etc.

Controversial take, and certainly a contrarian one, but I think the Bank of Canada rate hike was the right move. I say that despite the terrible September employment report, which showed the economy losing 68,000 jobs after another 42,000 were lost in August, with unemployment rising to 6.5%. That clearly argues for caution. But beneath the headline, September’s weakness was disproportionately public-sector driven, while private-sector employment actually increased. Meanwhile, credit conditions remain strong and money supply continues to expand. M2 by itself isn't a reason to raise rates, but when money and credit are expanding alongside resilient private-sector activity and persistent inflationary pressures, the combination becomes harder to ignore. The Bank is essentially choosing between two risks: overtightening into a weakening labour market or allowing relatively loose financial conditions to reignite inflation. I think the latter is now the bigger risk. If you disagree, look at the Canadian bank stocks.

I was wrong about the Fed and its rate policy this year, but not simply because M2 is rising. Over the past year, M2 money supply has shifted from a modest recovery into sustained expansion, rising $1.26 trillion, or 5.7%, from September 2025 to September 2026. More importantly, the pace is accelerating. Over the past six months, M2 has been growing at roughly a 7.2% annualized rate, well above the three-year average of 4.1%. But M2 growth by itself isn’t sufficient reason for the Fed to raise rates. Money can sit idle, velocity can change and deposit growth does not necessarily translate into excess demand. The more important signal is what is happening alongside it: accelerating credit creation, record corporate issuance, enormous AI-related capital spending, resilient growth and renewed inflationary pressures. Investment-grade issuance has already set a full-year record, fuelled in part by enormous AI-related borrowing, while technology CapEx is making an outsized contribution to economic growth. Companies are raising and spending hundreds of billions on data centres, power, chips and infrastructure. Then there’s inflation. Energy has become a major near-term driver of producer and headline inflation. PPI for final demand surged 6.3% year over year in September, while core CPI remains at 2.6%. The challenge for the Fed is that monetary policy can restrain demand, but it can’t produce more energy. That side of the inflation equation increasingly rests with the White House and energy policy. When money and credit are expanding at the same time that capital spending is booming and inflationary pressures are re-emerging, the combination becomes much harder to dismiss. Meanwhile, markets are behaving as though none of this matters. Equity returns remain heavily concentrated in technology and AI-linked names, while parts of the commodity complex, including wheat, lumber, and gold, silver and uranium equities, are being sold despite what in many cases appear to be supportive underlying fundamentals. Put it all together and the backdrop looks considerably less benign than I previously thought. M2 isn’t the reason to tighten. It’s the combination of expanding money, booming credit creation, massive AI-related capital spending, resilient growth and renewed inflationary pressure that changes the calculus. And yet technology stocks are behaving as though higher rates pose virtually no threat. Perhaps that’s precisely the opportunity for the Fed to turn more hawkish. When markets stop fearing the hawks, it becomes much easier for the hawks to start eating the doves.

Bank of Canada hikes 25. It was about defending the currency as they could only diverge from the Fed for so long. CAD/USD telling you that the rate hike was all but guaranteed. Banks had already started raising mortgage rates.

They can hike and break things while the long end goes higher or they don’t hike, things don’t break yet and the long end goes higher. Agree with @LukeGromen and will be super interesting to see what Warsh does tomorrow.

How ETFs, momentum and passive investing are reshaping stock prices. As a result, share prices do not always convey value and for active investors this creates both risk and opportunity. My piece here:

My @financialpost this week. Why Canadian investors should worry about the Jekyll-and-Hyde U.S. economy. Away from the AI headlines, much of Main Street America is hurting. Consumers are becoming increasingly selective with their spending after years of elevated inflation eroded purchasing power. Just as conditions appeared to be stabilizing, the conflict with Iran sent energy prices sharply higher, once again squeezing household budgets.

Since June 1, in the broader Russell 3000 Index (which covers roughly 96% of the investable U.S. equity market: • 89% of stocks are down more than 10% • 54% are down more than 20% • 29% are down more than 30% • 7% are down more than 50%

My God. Amount over $265,545–$1,000,000 now taxed at 55.5%. The minimum amount required to qualify to buy a home in Vancouver is just below that range at $220,000. Those making over $1mm taxed at 57.5%. Wow.

Humbled and deeply grateful to share that my first book, Investing Through the Storm: How to Preserve and Grow Your Wealth in Uncertain Times, will be published this December by @harrimanhouse This project has been years in the making, a practical guide drawn from lessons learned through market cycles, client conversations, and the privilege of stewarding capital in volatile times. None of this would have been possible without the support of my family, colleagues, mentors, and the incredible investors and readers who’ve followed my work over the years. Thank you. If you’re navigating today’s uncertainty and looking for a clear framework to protect and grow wealth, I’d be honoured if you pre-ordered a copy. Your support means the world. Pre-order here: or here Looking forward to sharing more as we get closer to launch. Grateful for this journey. 🙏