Mark(@MRRydon):Gavin's right to see ROI on AI in these FT charts. The three industries leaning hardest into AI (information, professional services and finance) went from a 2.2% productivity trend to 5.0% since 2022. The rest of the economy went from 0.9% to 1.4%. The chart I keep staring at is the first one. In AI-adopting sectors, US output per worker breaks away from its 2012 to 2019 trend right after ChatGPT. The UK, Canada, France and Germany stay close to trend. The counterargument is that this is just America's flexible labour market doing what it always does. I think the simpler explanation is that the US is where the AI spend lands first, and Gavin's point that America is 72% of Anthropic's revenue fits that. If the first real productivity data shows up exactly where the tools get used most, it's hard to argue the buildout is running ahead of demand. I'd love to see the same cut by company size next

2026.11.02 07:30

Gavin's right to see ROI on AI in these FT charts. The three industries leaning hardest into AI (information, professional services and finance) went from a 2.2% productivity trend to 5.0% since 2022. The rest of the economy went from 0.9% to 1.4%. The chart I keep staring at is the first one. In AI-adopting sectors, US output per worker breaks away from its 2012 to 2019 trend right after ChatGPT. The UK, Canada, France and Germany stay close to trend. The counterargument is that this is just America's flexible labour market doing what it always does. I think the simpler explanation is that the US is where the AI spend lands first, and Gavin's point that America is 72% of Anthropic's revenue fits that. If the first real productivity data shows up exactly where the tools get used most, it's hard to argue the buildout is running ahead of demand. I'd love to see the same cut by company size next

Gavin Baker@GavinSBaker

2026.11.01 19:19

Hard for me to look at these charts from the FT, especially the first one, and not see some evidence of “ROI on AI.” Seems like a productivity surge post-Covid era overhiring that began to reverse before ChatGPT came out and then resumed its upward trend after ChatGPT. Especially given the @a16z data on revenue per employee at their portfolio companies and the @EPBResearch data showing that the 3 industries that have most heavily adopted AI have gone from 2.2% productivity growth to 5% productivity growth. And makes sense that it is showing up in the US first - America is 72% of Anthropic revenue vs. 50%ish at most application software companies. Great stuff from @jburnmurdoch even if I disagree with his conclusion.

Forward to community