CLOCKS ⏰
unironically tools to keep time and create a canonical ordering of events are my new obsession
neither machines nor agents experience time so they must create or ingest it, making time susceptible to manipulation
MEV anyone? 😉
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“[REDACTED]’s watch was a [REDACTED] Men’s Automatic Analog Watch. [REDACTED] walked back to the vehicle to check his phone, which displayed 12:40am. [REDACTED] noted the discrepancy, compared the time displayed on his watch to the time displayed on his phone and observed that the time on his watch was 25 minutes ahead of the time on his phone and the vehicle’s digital clock. [REDACTED] relayed the discrepancy to [REDACTED], whose digital watch displayed the same time as the phones and vehicle clock.” 🤔
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reflecting on @CrucibleCap turning 2 next month. emerging trends in venture platforms that will accelerate as infrastructure economics change the economics of venture. what am i missing?
compute — firms building or funding their own compute businesses. (Our compute biz has 8-figure run rate; Cambium built an opco/propco with capital partners to deploy portco Sambanova’s chips; nearly every large fund is doing something here to route immense capex and opex margins back to their bottom line)
asset optimization — firms buying businesses or asset portfolios and optimizing them with their portcos. (GC buying a hospital; we’re looking at distressed energy assets to optimize w a portco and harvest levered depreciation.)
restructuring — firms doing bankruptcy buyouts, restructurings, and recaps of legacy companies. (we did @standardnuclear with @decisivepointvc; working on a second energy buyout/restructure w another partner now)
trading — firms moving into trading: prop desks, market making, and/or managing their own VaR/exposure. (we run a prop book; many HFT/MM VC arms have strategic capital offerings; hearing one large SV fund is trying to hire traders.)
strategic finance — firms moving beyond talent, biz dev, media platform into strategic finance as companies need more debt: ABS, EBL, trade finance, PO finance, serviced by an in-house lead. (we’re building a syndication network and a suite of template docs/tools.)
securitization / tokenization — as financing complexity grows, more firms will help companies securitize or tokenize fixed assets/liabilities to tap larger capital pools without an IPO, either partnering with a platform or building their own since it’s largely a commodified service now
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the mountains are calling to us
(as are lithium, silicon, germanium, rubidium, and other friendly little isotopes)
if you:
-will be in boulder, colorado on monday and
-vibe with this meme
we are gathering on quantum materials, sensing and networking. do reach out
Every morning on a compute trading desk starts with working out which deals actually need you. With Compute Trader, your pipeline already knows: one's a contract away from closing, another's gone quiet for a week. Ask the agent what to chase, and whatever the deal needs gets done in the same thread.
Your desk's agent, in private beta:
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we need a pro data center psy op
Girls be like ‘I know a place’ and then take you to the point of localized entanglement
if you have supply chain risk, you should be hedging your exposure with @PillarHQ
When the Red Sea Crisis hit, most shippers absorbed the spike in container rates. One vehicle distributor didn't.
They had partnered with @PillarHQ in advance. Their freight lanes were already hedged before any crisis arrived. When rates went up 3x, they saved freight charges while competitors paid the market rate and called customers to have difficult conversations about the landed prices.
That's not a lucky outcome. That's what container freight hedging looks like.
The reason this is still rare: 99% of companies that move goods by container have never heard of hedging. Ship owners and large charterers have used it for decades. The importer, the freight forwarder, the commodity operator who pays for freight and needs to quote a landed cost that still holds when the ship docks — nobody built a way for them to manage this.
Until now.
Upload your shipping manifests or bills of lading. Pillar maps your voyage exposure, builds a hedge tied to your actual shipping routes, and monitors it around the clock as markets move. Every hedge links to a physical voyage. No generic positions, no unmatched exposure.
Protection against spot-rate volatility on your container tradelane of choice. 20ft and 40ft containers, standard and HC. If you have a spot contract, lock in rates for up to a year. If you are on a longer-term contract, make sure the rate actually holds and protect yourself from GRIs and surcharges. The freight bill you quote in January can look very different by April. It doesn't have to.
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the level of schadenfreude around situational awareness / leopold is sad
let the man cook, he's having a generational run and even if he loses 80% of his book, he'll end the year with better numbers than most HF managers will ever print.
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founder calls me to say he's kicking off his Series A
he just bet me $5k cash he'll have a term sheet by August 7 at midnight PT
unhinged and i love it
Nirvana is live on today!
@AltinityDB is the largest independent managed service for ClickHouse® provider, and Nirvana is now a BYOC option: database on the same rack as your workload, built for your hottest data. GA now.
The story 👇 1/
#ClickHouse# #Database# #BYOC# #Cloud#
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narrative violation: crypto native founders are building the compute frontier
neoclouds @CoreWeave @CrusoeAI @Hut8Corp @TeraWulfInc @togethercompute
token markets @OpenRouter @PrimeIntellect @hyperbolic_labs
agent / harness @NousResearch @AskVenice
more to come 🫶
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the next decade will unleash sovereignty over personal health and wellness
started my peptide journey 4 years ago, never felt or looked better. excited for BCIs, neuro, and in-vivo gene editing. i'm down to try it ALL.
let's live longer, better, without usurious billing
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The FDA peptide panel just voted YES on BPC-157.
The peptide era is here.
dispatch from Crucible Compute
an under discussed reason for the H100 smile curve (from @ComputeDesk)
deploying workloads on new hardware and new firmware is HARD and there is a shortage of low level kernel and compiler engineers to figure it out, nor can mid stage startups afford large compute orchestration teams to manage heterogenous infrastructure since it’s intermittent and expensive work
more efficient to run on H100s where you’ve already figured out how to make things work v burn expensive GPU time trying to refactor your workloads and solve firmware issues
as hardware heterogeneity continues to increase across chips, networking, and more, huge opportunity to build abstraction layer(s) for how workloads get packaged and run on all types of hardware
today there are lots of companies addressing one or a few abstractions (@SpectralCom for CUDA compilers, for example) but we expect this market to grow exponentially by necessity
if you’re building abstraction layers for both workload runtime, token pricing, workload timing arbitrage, or more, we’d love to meet you and learn more, potentially integrate you into our compute deployment as we learn by building our own little margin optimized token factory
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the future of frontier labs looks a lot more like the history of capital markets and HFTs than most appreciate today
long NYC, Chicago, and the financial engineers
Ok here goes.
The 60s and early 70s were a golden age for financial research and modern finance was borne out of the work done at MiT and UChicago culminating with Black Scholes in 73.
In the early 80s quants came to Wall Street - I believe the quant desk at GS was started by Fischer Black in 83.
To trade securities at that time you called a human on the floor of the exchange and paid $2 commission to settle something on a piece of paper priced in teenths that settled in hours to days. 50pc of volumes were blocks.
Today, commissions are less than a penny, trading is electronic, done by machines, priced in decimals, and the exchanges are museums.
Frictions were removed so the models could trade. Through this time there were periods where competitive advantage (alpha) degraded, but markets continued to evolve.
Model companies selling outcomes feels very similar. End of the day what’s every company on earth trying to do? Move inventory, capture wallet, create a positive return on capital. The lift will come from better questions (agents and models) and better portfolio construction of inputs. Two models using the same data the same way will see price compression over time. I expect model companies to start raiding Wall Street for risk professionals if they haven’t already. I expect Wall Street to respond with model companies of their own, especially when regulation comes.
This will flow thru the value chain.
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W = Fd.
Every supply chain of physical products falls under this constraint in a world where human labor becomes a rounding error in the cost equation.
To optimize the equation for energy cost, mass and distance must be minimized.
To minimize mass, we must innovate in material, tooling, and product design.
To minimize distance, we must digitize materials markets such that spreads are compressed and redundant processing/logistics are eliminated.
This digitization of material market is inevitable. Humans will compete for resources. Capitalism will expand the agency humans have over materials and machines.
Global physical materials has roughly $100T of transaction flow each year globally and that’s in the pre-AI, pre- energy abundance era.
Whatever multiplier you want to apply, then financialize the newly standardized markets, and now add a zero.
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everything is markets in the end
the endless pursuit of capital efficiency shapes the trajectory of infrastructure buildouts. first compute, now energy, soon materials.
every frontier lab that lives long enough will see itself become a trading firm
🤌 few
congrats to @standardnuclear on their IPO!
i flew down to Oak Ridge with @thomasehendrix in October 2024, and the investor group bought the assets of USNC out of bankruptcy in December.
what unfolded since is nothing short of exceptional, congrats to all! only in America 🇺🇸
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1/ kicking off a new Crucible series on "The World as Model" where we delve into the biggest opportunity in industrial hardware, models, and data
the prize: to build what HFTs built for financial markets, but for the physical world
a quick overview
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this is traumatizing for crypto people and that makes it incredibly funny
