Merkle3s Weekly — Three Things You Need to Know
1️⃣ Fed On Hold
The economy runs hot, inflation runs hotter — and the Fed chose to do nothing.
👉 Oct 28 FOMC held rates at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10-2 vote; two dissents demanded a hike.
👉 Sep PCE 3.6% YoY, core 3.1% — miles above the 2% target; Q3 GDP 3.4% beat; consumer confidence 91.7 smashed expectations.
👉 Odds of a December hike jumped to ~75%; Friday's Oct jobs and Tuesday's Oct CPI will decide December's move.
2️⃣ TradFi Onchain
Wall Street just dragged Hyperliquid perps inside the US compliance regime.
👉 Oct 29 ICE (NYSE parent) took a strategic stake in Trade[XYZ], bringing Hyperliquid onchain perps to US markets — crypto, equities, commodities, FX, 24/7.
👉 Licensed FCM + KYC, segregated clearing house for risk isolation; OKX JV handles distribution, pending CFTC approval.
👉 $HYPE spiked 20% past $96 before settling at $84; Stan Druckenmiller's first-ever X post announced his investment.
3️⃣ IPO Eve
Onchain pre-IPO perps are already betting on a company that hasn't even priced.
👉 Nov 2 S-1/A with Q3 financials: $17B revenue (+1100% YoY), GS/MS underwriting, targeting a $1.5–2T valuation.
👉 TradeXYZ listed xyz:ANT perps (10x leverage, opened $138, fell to $110); Hyperliquid HIP-3 also runs an ANTH synthetic market.
👉 Roadshow could start as soon as next week; Polymarket gives the $1.5–1.75T range the highest odds.