Morgan Stanley Derivatives(@MgnStnlyDerivs):Implied volatility markets are not pricing midterm results to be a big event. The forward volatility market is implying just a ~1.2% move in the S&P 500 Index tomorrow. That’s below what was implied one day ahead of 3 of the last 4 midterm elections. And it’s below what the S&P 500 realized after the 2018 and 2022 elections.

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Morgan Stanley Derivatives@MgnStnlyDerivs

2026.11.03 16:49

Implied volatility markets are not pricing midterm results to be a big event. The forward volatility market is implying just a ~1.2% move in the S&P 500 Index tomorrow. That’s below what was implied one day ahead of 3 of the last 4 midterm elections. And it’s below what the S&P 500 realized after the 2018 and 2022 elections.