Mick Bransfield
@MickBransfield
Principal @ Kingston Chase Consulting, LLC. Data Analytics & Prediction Markets.
1.3K Following 1.8K Followers
RAND and Metaculus just published "Integrated Strategic Forecasting: A New Methodology to Enhance Decision Advantage", co-authored by Anca Agachi and Miriam Pasternak Jørgensen of RAND and Metaculus's Molly Hickman.
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The fight is moving beyond sports. States actively targeting political & election event contracts:
- Arizona (criminal charges)
- Minnesota (via legislation)
- Nevada
- New York
- Washington state
- Wisconsin (via state Election Commission)
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Dustin Gouker says none of his work with Massachusetts Gaming Commission (a state gaming regulator suing Kalshi) "had anything to do with any court case."
Below is an email between Gouker and MGC discussing tracking prediction market litigation.
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Great article analyzing Kalshi combo/parlay data, and showing what happens to a market maker with a bug in their code:
