Tuesday's inflation report will be missing the number everyone quotes. The government never collected prices in October 2025 because of the shutdown. With no prices from a year ago, there is nothing to compare against. So this month there will be no official yearly inflation rate. Not for overall prices, and not for core prices, which leave out food and energy. What you will get is the one-month change. Forecasters expect prices rose about 0.24% in October, down from 0.6% in September. Core is expected to be up about 0.2%. That monthly number is the whole show. Traders see about an 80% chance the Federal Reserve raises rates in December. If you see a yearly number on Tuesday, it is just someone's estimate. It is not the official one.