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Next week could decide where the AI trade goes for the rest of the year.
On Wednesday, $MSFT and $GOOGL report after the close, along with $NOW and $KLAC.
On Thursday, $AMZN, $INTC and $SNDK report after the close.
$VRT, $GEV, $GLW and $STX are on the calendar too.
That is the cloud, the chips, the memory and the power all in ONE week.
The only number I care about is CAPEX guidance from the hyperscalers.
If it goes up again, the selloff was a gift but if it gets cut, the selloff is just getting started.
Just a friendly reminder that the Federal Reserve is meeting next week and markets are now pricing in a 90% probability that interest rates remain unchanged.
This is pretty important, especially considering everything we've been seeing across the broader market over the past few weeks. Inflation is still running hotter than expected, Treasury yields remain elevated but have started to come down a bit and investors are increasingly concerned that interest rates could stay higher for longer. The bigger question isn't necessarily whether the Fed holds rates steady next week, because that's already widely expected but rather what Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals about the months ahead.
Remember, the Fed raised rates in September, and now we're seeing expectations shift toward a potential pause in October, with economists increasingly looking toward another hike in December. For equities, especially high growth technology stocks, this matters quite a bit. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs, put pressure on valuations, and make financing more expensive for capital-intensive businesses like neoclouds. And with hundreds of billions of dollars being poured into AI infrastructure, the cost of capital is becoming increasingly important.
Personally, I'm going to be paying much closer attention to Warsh's commentary and the bond market than the actual rate decision. A pause might provide some temporary relief but if the Fed signals that additional hikes are coming, we could see volatility continue.