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Milk Road
@milkroaddaily
Helping you get smarter about crypto, macro and AI investing. Now trusted by 500k+ investors. Subscribe below ๐Ÿ‘‡ @MilkRoadStocks @MilkRoadAI
3.7K Following    104.9K Followers
$HOOD has been doing NUMBERS over the last 12 months. ... yet it's the same ~$100 stock it was a year ago. In that year, revenue grew 53%, platform assets grew 48%, and the margin book more than doubled. The market just adjusted a whole year of growth to zero. But this is the multiple getting cut, not the company. We know this because there was no company-specific bad news behind the selloff. $HOOD is momentum-beta. When the momentum trade unwinds, it gets sold with everything else, fundamentals or not. Let's start with the year-over-year numbers: - Revenue: $2.95B to $4.5B (+53%) - Platform assets: $255B to $377B (+48%) - Funded customers: 25.9M to 27.7M - Net deposits: $69B over the last 12 months (Same $100 stock, much bigger company.) And it isn't only bigger, it's speeding up. - May equity volumes: +75% year over year - Margin book: +117% year over year - Event contracts: roughly 0.3B traded a year ago, 3.9B in May (about 13x) The newest revenue lines are the fastest-growing ones (and that part matters). Then there's the wave the market is ignoring completely. Robinhood Chain went live July 1. An Ethereum L2 with tokenized stocks already trading in 120+ countries and agentic trading built in, sitting on a base pushing 28 million customers. It's the lever that takes Robinhood global. Long story longer: Robinhood isn't just growing fast, it's diversifying fast. Margin, event contracts, Gold, banking, and now its own chain. Far broader than last cycle. Now for the bad news: HOOD is a high-beta proxy for crypto and risk appetite, so when the market turns risk-off it gets thrown out no matter what the business is doing. That's exactly what dragged it lower over the past couple weeks. But that logic cuts both ways. You're being handed a company roughly 50% bigger and far more diversified at last year's price because sentiment unwound, not because anything broke. We've been long $HOOD since last year and we're not touching it here. Goldman just moved its target to $137 and Morgan Stanley to $124. We think this one trades back through its old $153 high as the new lines keep scaling (which they are). Follow @MilkRoadDaily and track our analysts' real-time portfolios inside Milk Road PRO for $1 (link in bio).
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Mert: 10% of Bitcoin's market cap is a 'conservative' $ZEC target. "Zcash is smaller than Dogecoin. Smaller than Tron, smaller than pretty much anything in the top 10." Yet it solves a problem nobody else has solved with mathematical guarantees. "Why would you not want your Bitcoin to be private? What do you gain by simply not having the option to shield your funds?" "It's strictly inferior technologically speaking." Once it hits 10%, the momentum question becomes obvious. FT @KevinWSHPod @mert @helius.
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Most critics think Ethereum is getting cannibalized by L2s. But the founders of Ethlabs believe Ethereum is quietly positioning itself to become the root of the global economy. Fast confirmation rules are set to slash transfer friction by 98%, L2s are onboarding tens of millions of real-world users, and L1 is cementing its position as the primary economic settlement hub. FT @BitcoinJesusETH @adietrichs @barnabemonnot @_julianma Tune in to know more โฑ TIME POINTS โฑ 01:42 - How Can Ethereum Become The Root Of The Global Economy? 05:44 - How Does Ethlabs Collaborate With Other Entities? 09:01 - Who Controls The Ethereum Improvement Proposal Process? 11:26 - Benefits & Tradeoffs Of Ethereum's New Org Structure 13:52 - The First Priorities And Target Upgrades For Ethlabs 16:15 - How Will Upgrades Like Faster Slot Times Reach The Market? 20:47 - Ethlabs Focus: Short-Term Upgrades vs Long-Term Goals 22:53 - Is There A Concrete Roadmap For Ethlabs? 27:00 - What Is The Strategy For Growing Ethereum User Adoption? 29:01 - Sponsor: Securitize 29:39 - Sponsor: Bitget 30:12 - What Are The Ecosystem Builders' Takes About Ethereum? 33:22 - Does Layer 2 Growth Accrue Value To Ethereum Or To L2s? 38:39 - The Updated Vision For L1 And L2 Alignment 41:45 - How Will Ethereum Balance ETH Asset Supply And Demand? 46:10 - What Do Collaborations With DATs Look Like? 50:06 - How Can Devs And Community Members Contribute To Ethlabs? 51:29 - How Is Ethlabs Navigating Crypto Twitter Dynamics?
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Galaxy dropped 6% on Monday, going as low as $22.95. But our belief still stands: Galaxy will be a $38 stock (save this). The dip came from two negative headlines, and neither one touched the part of Galaxy that carries the real value... Headline one: a Foxconn unit got approval to sell its entire Galaxy stake, roughly 4.4 million shares, or about 1% of the company. The size is manageable, but it killed the speculation that Foxconn was building toward a bigger strategic deal. The market had been carrying that deal narrative for free, and on Monday it repriced an option we hadn't been underwriting either way. Headline two: tokenization lead Thomas Cowan left for rival Bullish. This is one we actually weigh, because it hits the onchain leg of the bull thesis right as management teases new partner announcements - and losing a lead to a direct competitor raises a retention question. (We're treating it as a yellow flag and watching how quickly they backfill the seat.) For now, the part of Galaxy that carries the value (Helios)? It's doing just fine. On the Q2 AMA, @Novogratz laid out the valuation frame himself: one big campus, two big chunks of power, one leased out and one to be leased out. Run a straight discounted cash flow on just those two chunks and you get a number bigger than Galaxy's entire market cap today. That means everything else, the trading business, the onchain rails, and every future site, is still priced below zero. The United States is short power, and @GalaxyHQ has built an expertise at finding it, working with the community, getting it leased up, and delivering on time and on budget. That process is repeatable, and repeatable processes earn growth multiples. Now, let's go over the catalysts that're about to ship... โ†’ First data halls delivered by end of summer. โ†’ Phase one of Helios fully cash flowing, which Novogratz says is when people will start giving them a lot more credit. โ†’ Plus the expected second Helios tenant and new onchain partner announcements. Delivery on each of those will easily eclipse both of Monday's headlines, making the (dip driven by a Foxconn's sale and a staff exit) look more like a buying opp than a red flag. (And the market tends to agree - the stock is already back up to ~$24.50) Our PRO team called $HYPE (+46.9%), $HOOD (+25.8%), and $MU (+105.4%), all before they ran. They've been doing the same with $GLXY. Don't miss their next entry. Try Milk Road PRO for $1 for 7 days - link in bio: @MilkRoadDaily
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Ethereum's biggest catalyst isn't another ETF. It's demand. @ethereumJoseph says the next wave won't come from traders; it'll come from AI agents, tokenized assets, stablecoins, and institutions settling trillions onchain. If that plays out, today's price looks very different in a few years. FT @BitcoinJesusETH @joechalom @Sharplink Tune in to know more โฑ TIME POINTS โฑ 00:00 - Intro 01:21 โ€“ Why SharpLink Bought More ETH 03:06 โ€“ Surviving the Crypto Bear 05:35 โ€“ Russell Index Milestone 08:28 โ€“ SharpLink's DeFi Strategy 14:39 โ€“ Fiduciary Duty Explained 18:07 โ€“ ETH Labs Explained 24:02 โ€“ ETH Labs Priorities 30:12 โ€“ ETH Institutional vs. Etherealize 34:03 โ€“ Can Ethereum's New Orgs Win? 38:26 โ€“ Sponsor: Securitize 39:04 โ€“ Sponsor: Bitget 39:36 โ€“ Ethereum vs. Legacy Finance 45:44 โ€“ Ethereum's Future Governance 46:57 โ€“ SharpLink vs. Bitmine? 50:07 โ€“ 1 Million Ethereum Developers 51:30 โ€“ Glamsterdam Upgrade 56:44 โ€“ Why ETH Gains Value 01:02:59 โ€“ Measuring Ethereum's Success 01:08:03 โ€“ Wrap-Up
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If you work in payments, you know the pain. You've sent the payment. The customer says it never arrived. You're now combing through transaction hashes trying to figure out which onchain transfer corresponds to which invoice. But @Arc just shipped something that fixes this: Transaction Memos are now live on Arc Testnet. Here's what that actually means: Every payment rail in traditional finance has some form of structured reference (like an invoice number). Onchain payments have never really had this in a native way. Memo-enabled calls change that: โ†’ Attach invoice IDs, payout references or customer IDs directly to a contract call โ†’ Preserve sender attribution at the protocol level โ†’ Memo events only emit when the contract call actually succeeds This sounds like a small feature but it's not. It's the difference between a payment that says "0.5 ETH moved from address A to address B" and a payment that says "Invoice #4471#, paid in full, from this customer, confirmed onchain." That's the gap between crypto rails and actual financial infrastructure. Most chains weren't built with this kind of operational context in mind because they weren't built for enterprises. But Arc is. This is what building for the way money actually moves looks like.
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Raoul Pal: The best performing brokerage accounts at every firm are the ones belonging to dead people. "It's because they don't sell." "Unfucking your future is compounding. F*cking up your future is trying to trade." Very few traders actually make compounding returns. Buying and holding in the right secular trend beats almost everything - and you don't even need to be smart to do it. FT @RaoulGMI @RealVision.
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Raoul Pal: GDP as we measure it is about to become obsolete. The new formula isn't just population + productivity + debt. It's humans + robots + AI + debt + energy density + compute efficiency. Every single component goes exponential. "We're in 2026. We're not very long before the entire structure of the economy changes." FT @RaoulGMI @RealVision.
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Raoul Pal: Agents spawn sub-agents, who spawn more sub-agents... "Agents building their own agents is a nonlinear function." And the scale won't follow Metcalfe's law - it'll follow Reed's law, which is the square of that. This is a Cambrian explosion of new economic participants. FT @RaoulGMI @RealVision.
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Raoul Pal: Within 2 years, the majority of economic transactions on Earth will be invisible to humans. Not hidden or secret - "Just operating at machine speed, a scale and resolution that exists entirely beyond human perception." We (humans) will only be about 5% of this new dark economy. FT @RaoulGMI @RealVision.
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Our Head of Research just sold his $AAVE bag to buy $IFNNY (Infineon Technologies). In Kyle's view, $IFNNY is one of the cleanest ways to own the shift from "AI as a chip story" to "AI as an electricity and infrastructure story." And it's his first allocation to AI infra energy. He's already got a second name in the energy sector on his watch list and plans to deploy into it in the coming weeks. ๐Ÿ‘‡
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Nubank just printed its best quarter ever and the stock barely moved. Revenue crossed $5 billion in a single quarter for the first time. Net income jumped 56% year over year. The P/E multiple actually compressed. Our lead crypto analyst @m0xt_ is buying (save this). His take: the market is treating a great quarter like an in-line one, which gives us our setup. The Q1 numbers: - Revenue over $5B for the 1st time. - Net income from $557M to $871M. - Diluted EPS from $0.11 to $0.18. ROE held at 29%. And that builds on a 2025 that already looked huge... Full-year revenue hit $15.8B, up 42%. Net income reached $2.87B. Q4 ROE landed at 33%. Total assets at $77.5B. Deposits at $42.4B. On top of that - customer growth is doing its own thing: 135 million customers globally as of March 2026. @nubank added 4 million in Q1 alone. Brazil is now at 115 million customers, making Nu the largest private financial institution in the country. Then there's Mexico... 15 million customers. Third-largest financial institution in the country. Hit break-even in Q1. The customer base is up 7x in four years. ARPAC has nearly doubled. (If Mexico works, country three works. And country four.) There's also U.S. optionality that doesn't seem to be priced in yet. Nu got conditional OCC approval for a U.S. national bank charter back in January. That's a whole new growth leg for a company already growing 45% on a $15B base. The part that makes the trade: Nu trades at roughly 22x TTM P/E, down from around 26.5x, business accelerating, multiple compressing... That gap usually closes one of two ways: 1. The multiple expands back. OR 2. Earnings catch up and you get the stock cheaper than the run rate implies. (Either path pays you) Wrap it all together and you have: 45%+ top-line growth, bank-level profitability, a proven second-country playbook, U.S. optionality, a massive underbanked TAM in Latin America, and a multiple that keeps getting cheaper as the business gets better. @m0xt_ is building a position and letting it compound. He just dropped his exact entry, sizing, and how this fits into his broader portfolio. Link in the first comment ๐Ÿ‘‡
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Bitcoin rallied to $82K on leverage and speculation... But there was almost no spot volume backing it up. "That low spot volume makes things dangerous for a lot of reasons, because it means the order books are thinner and they can be cleared." FT @BitcoinJesusETH @LGDoucet
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Will crypto hit all-time highs in 2026? "The 'hot ball of money' that everyone talks about is getting bigger and gaining mass," New ETF and ETP products mean capital can move faster and smarter than ever. "As soon as the market starts to flip bullish... you could see an enormous amount of capital from all over the place come into crypto and digital assets in a way that has never been possible before." And Bitcoin's scarcity means a supply shock could push it into overvaluation faster than any other asset. FT @BitcoinJesusETH @LGDoucet.
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Anthropic is briefing the G20's Financial Stability Board on AI cyber vulnerabilities. The specific trigger: Claude Mythos exposed cyber vulnerabilities serious enough to land on the desk of systemic financial risk regulators. Why this matters for crypto specifically: Onchain systems are the highest-value targets for AI-assisted exploits. Immutable settlement, autonomous execution, real-time liquidity = Greater incentive to attack.
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John Gillen: Could Bitcoin drop back to $70k? Maybe. But even if it does, we probably won't stay there long. "I don't think we'll spend a significant amount of time at new lows." The difference between a healthy dip and a real breakdown is time. Short visit to scary levels - not a prolonged bleed. FT @BitcoinJesusETH @LGDoucet
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Nubank's killer Q1 builds on a 2025 that already looked huge... โ†’ Full-year revenue hit $15.8B, up 42%. โ†’ Net income reached $2.87B. โ†’ Q4 ROE landed at 33%. โ†’ Total assets at $77.5B. โ†’ Deposits at $42.4B. On top of that - customer growth is doing its own thing. ๐Ÿ‘‡
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SpaceX is reportedly targeting a June 12 Nasdaq listing at a $1.75T valuation, w/ $75B raised... And onchain perp markets are already running price discovery on it. $SPCX is trading on Hyperliquid at ~$200 per share. The reported IPO price target is ~$150. That's a ~35% premium baked into a crypto derivative while Nasdaq investors are still waiting on a prospectus. Onchain perp markets are becoming a front-running price discovery layer for major private assets. (Running months before any traditional venue even gets a look)
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If AI keeps spilling out of data centers and into the physical world - think: - Humanoid robots - Robotaxis - Industrial automation - Smart machines $IFNNY is exposed to all of it. Every one of those needs power chips, control systems, sensing, and energy management. Infineon management has already flagged humanoids as a meaningful growth driver and is working directly with Nvidia on that stack.
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