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Nikita Makaed
@NikitaMakaed
79 Following    41 Followers
This is my highest-conviction idea to date. Viking might be the highest-quality compounder I’ve come across, and the market is pricing it like a broken story on low-water worries. I am long $VIK, here’s why: (1) Street models ~5% fleet CAGR off the disclosed orderbook, I see 7-8%. The ex-VP of New Builds confirmed shipyards have no delays and Viking can order more ships at any point. With 40-50% ROIC on its ships, it will exercise its options, lifting FY’28 EPS ~15% vs Street. (2) Street fears low water will squeeze ‘27 and ‘28 demand, but channel checks say otherwise. Travel agents report little to no cancellations, and Viking raised prices on 53 of 125 tracked ‘27 cabin pairings. The Rhine and Danube routes hit by the water held their prices. (3) The low-water hit is a one-off ~$191m across FY’26–29, not a broken river business. Identical Longships let Viking swap guests past the dry stretch instead of cancelling. Street has yield growth slowing to +4.9% by FY’28, I see it speeding up to +7.7%. Quick background: Viking is the premium river and ocean cruise line for the 55+ traveler — no kids, no casinos, one language on board, identical ships across the fleet. Guests pay deposits 12–18 months out, 54% of them come back, and half book direct, so the company gets paid before it sails and spends less to fill cabins than anyone else in the industry. Why it’s down: the stock went from ~$105 at the Aug highs to the high-$70s after Q2. The print itself was a beat (EPS $1.31 vs $0.95, revenue +16.5%), but management flagged that record-low water on the Rhine and Danube would hit Q3, and the market read that as the river franchise cracking. It came in from 31x to 23.5x NTM P/E on what is, in my view, a one-quarter weather problem on a business still 96% booked for 2026 and 53% for 2027. Based on my extensive channel checks, expert calls with former employees, competitors, travel agents, and Viking's guests I believe VIK to be an incredibly attractive R/R scenario at these levels. The entry point for this was across 78-83$ levels. Happy to chat about it, you can also find the PPT presentation for it on my website.
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