Quantum computing is clearly still a sector where traditional valuation based on revenue or earnings is difficult. But that does not mean the right conclusion is to ignore the space or come back to it later. If anything, this is a time when we need to study it seriously. Knowing
@PhotonCap's technical background well, I can confidently say that he is one of the best tutors I know for doing exactly that. I am learning a lot from him myself.
From an investment perspective, I think we should at least start by separating the opportunities into a few buckets: whether to bet directly on quantum companies, whether to bet on the infrastructure and physical bottlenecks that will be needed regardless of which technology wins, or whether to bet on large companies where quantum may still be a small part of the business but which could end up owning critical platforms or standards across the ecosystem.
His latest piece goes much deeper than that, breaking down individual companies and analyzing their strengths and weaknesses in detail. But more than the individual scores, the main takeaway for me is a broader question:
Can we keep investing in this industry without having to predict the technology winner?
In a field like quantum, where technological uncertainty is still extremely high, trying to identify what will ultimately win may be less useful than asking what will still be necessary no matter what wins. To me, that is the most important idea in this piece.