The open vs closed source race is a price war.
Since June, the average paid token from OpenAI got 62% cheaper. DeepSeek: −51%. Google: −29%. Anthropic: −11%.
Over the same three months, Ornn has tracked B200 rent rising 50%. H200 rose 28%.
Models are getting cheaper to buy. The compute to run them is getting more expensive to rent. So where does value accrue?
To whoever owns the compute.
The cheapest open-weight model finishes a task for about 1/5 the cost of a comparable closed model, and they don't need the newest chips.
Every GPU is a shovel when the models are free.
See more at