Patrick Moorhead(@PatrickMoorhead):$INTC off the call. 10 things not in the release that were meaningful: 1. Five-year view: Intel sees server CPU TAM up to 5x, $40B to $200B+. Agents, agents, agents. 2. This year and next: server CPU units, all vendors, up 30%+ each year, with shortages into 2028. 3. Q4: data center up mid-teens QoQ, client down 20%+ on inventory cuts. 4. Israel fab outage: ~$300M of Q4 revenue, ~2 points of gross margin, nearly all 10nm server chips. Q1 revenue hit similar. 5. PC weakness frees wafers: Oregon's Panther Lake 18A capacity shifts to Intel 3 Xeon, 2H27. 6. PC units -12% in 2026, -10% in 2027; no memory relief seen in 2027. 7. Custom chips: +50% QoQ, 2x+ YoY, below-average margins. 8. Intel is open to fabbing CPUs on any ISA, Arm included, and offering modular x86. 9. 2027 investment year: capex up strongly, FCF probably not positive. 10. A couple of packaging customers named in the next two quarters; 14A 1.0 PDK by Q1. @intel

2026.10.29 22:48

$INTC off the call. 10 things not in the release that were meaningful: 1. Five-year view: Intel sees server CPU TAM up to 5x, $40B to $200B+. Agents, agents, agents. 2. This year and next: server CPU units, all vendors, up 30%+ each year, with shortages into 2028. 3. Q4: data center up mid-teens QoQ, client down 20%+ on inventory cuts. 4. Israel fab outage: ~$300M of Q4 revenue, ~2 points of gross margin, nearly all 10nm server chips. Q1 revenue hit similar. 5. PC weakness frees wafers: Oregon's Panther Lake 18A capacity shifts to Intel 3 Xeon, 2H27. 6. PC units -12% in 2026, -10% in 2027; no memory relief seen in 2027. 7. Custom chips: +50% QoQ, 2x+ YoY, below-average margins. 8. Intel is open to fabbing CPUs on any ISA, Arm included, and offering modular x86. 9. 2027 investment year: capex up strongly, FCF probably not positive. 10. A couple of packaging customers named in the next two quarters; 14A 1.0 PDK by Q1. @intel

Patrick Moorhead@PatrickMoorhead

2026.10.29 20:23

Good $INTC quarter, very challenging guide. We will have to wait until the call to get the details. Has to be from one or all of these: 1. weakening PC (see $MSFT comments) 2. ⁠scarcity of substrates 3. ⁠incident at Intel’s fab in Israel

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