Patrick Ruffini(@PatrickRuffini):I'm not sure there's a total smoking gun in the turnout data, but: - Primary composition vs. 2024 swung hardest to Dems in pro-Stevens counties. - Simply comparing turnout vs. Harris votes (and 2018 turnout as a % of 2016 Clinton) gives a more mixed picture, but Oakland was strong. Either way, there was not a turnout surge for El-Sayed relative to the pro-Stevens suburban counties.

Patrick Ruffini

@PatrickRuffini

Pollster @EchelonInsights, married an Iowa girl, here for the Realignment, author of Party of the People — “the book that predicted the 2024 election.”

Joined March 2007

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Patrick Ruffini@PatrickRuffini

2026.08.07 13:44

I'm not sure there's a total smoking gun in the turnout data, but: - Primary composition vs. 2024 swung hardest to Dems in pro-Stevens counties. - Simply comparing turnout vs. Harris votes (and 2018 turnout as a % of 2016 Clinton) gives a more mixed picture, but Oakland was strong. Either way, there was not a turnout surge for El-Sayed relative to the pro-Stevens suburban counties.