Patrick Ruffini
@PatrickRuffini
Pollster @EchelonInsights, married an Iowa girl, here for the Realignment, author of Party of the People — “the book that predicted the 2024 election.”
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Update. The average dollar is being spent in a Trump +6
Two things can be true at once:
Many of the underlying metrics for the GOP can be worse than 2018 - Trump approval, specials, primary turnout, and...
Voting continuing to get more partisan since 2018 such that Trump +10 or more states & districts are virtually impregnable
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I'm not sure there's a total smoking gun in the turnout data, but:
- Primary composition vs. 2024 swung hardest to Dems in pro-Stevens counties.
- Simply comparing turnout vs. Harris votes (and 2018 turnout as a % of 2016 Clinton) gives a more mixed picture, but Oakland was strong.
Either way, there was not a turnout surge for El-Sayed relative to the pro-Stevens suburban counties.
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Michigan was useful in that it revealed that there's **no part** of the working class coalition that wants anything to do with the DSA.
Black voters in the inner city? Nope.
Rural voters? Nope.
