Patrick Ruffini
@PatrickRuffini
Pollster @EchelonInsights, married an Iowa girl, here for the Realignment, author of Party of the People — “the book that predicted the 2024 election.”
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I don't think the Vivek or Peltola things will matter because October surprises are overrated generally but also voters don't care about norms or civility as much as you think.
My base case: Horrific national midterm performance for Rs possibly worse than expected in terms of margin.
And better performance for them than the polls are suggesting now in red states.
Update. The average dollar is being spent in a Trump +6
Two things can be true at once:
Many of the underlying metrics for the GOP can be worse than 2018 - Trump approval, specials, primary turnout, and...
Voting continuing to get more partisan since 2018 such that Trump +10 or more states & districts are virtually impregnable
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I'm not sure there's a total smoking gun in the turnout data, but:
- Primary composition vs. 2024 swung hardest to Dems in pro-Stevens counties.
- Simply comparing turnout vs. Harris votes (and 2018 turnout as a % of 2016 Clinton) gives a more mixed picture, but Oakland was strong.
Either way, there was not a turnout surge for El-Sayed relative to the pro-Stevens suburban counties.
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Michigan was useful in that it revealed that there's **no part** of the working class coalition that wants anything to do with the DSA.
Black voters in the inner city? Nope.
Rural voters? Nope.
