Memecoin + TAO subnet charts and analysis
Setups, invalidations & honest post-mortems
Trading is about probabilities, not prophecies
Informational purposes only
$AF (Arcflow) (Update)
CA: 0x75d658f8101fbe6dc217fbba7e20a0312af5fa2e
Disclosure: No change to my position since previous post.
Wave 1 peaked at $3.7m with a long upper wick and a large spike of volume at the top. What we previously had marked as Wave 2 at $835.6k was in fact only Wave A of 2 - we have since had Wave B and I believe we have now completed Wave C at $490.5k.
We found support at the bottom of the 4H Demand Structure highlighted blue, whilst bullish divergence printed at the low on the 4H timeframe.
We need to get through the overhead descending resistance line as well as the Weekly Pivot in the same sort of area to give us a good clue that the bottom may be in.
Breaking out above Wave b at $2m would add confidence to the count.
If the current count is correct, Wave 3 should target a minimum of $6.4m, before a Wave 4 pullback to around $4.1m and then a Wave 5 push up to around $7.8m.
robinhood:0xeb24a2663af4ee979dcbfe39cb95b5f12d369c4b
CA: 0xeb24a2663af4ee979dcbfe39cb95b5f12d369c4b
Disclosure: I hold a position.
It looks as though we are coming towards the end of a period of consolidation on Cerebro.
We can note the following significant factors:
- We are finding support at the Daily S1 + Point of Control confluence area.
- We have had several wicks into the 4H Demand Wick highlighted red, finding good demand there, and we now look to have successfully held the area as support.
- We had a large spike of volume and a long lower wick at the low, showing significant demand coming in.
- On the 4H timeframe, RSI is neutral whilst Stoch RSI has bottomed out in oversold and is now crossing bullishly. A bullish divergence printed on the 1H timeframe.
As always, price needs to get above Wave b ($5.7m) to significantly increase the odds that the low is in.
If the current count is correct, Wave 5 should target around $12.4m.
(I should note that typically you are not allowed to have the price action of Wave 4 overlapping with the price action of Wave 1, but I am comfortable loosening these rules a little when trading lower liquidity environments. The price action has the hallmarks of a Wave 4, including being a longer, more drawn out correction vs. the sharper Wave 2 correction. In any case, if this is somehow a Wave 2 rather than a Wave 4, all this does it make our upside targets much higher - will review this again in due course if price action gives us a reason to).