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駿HaYaO
@QQ_Timmy
居住在網路的麻雀
Joined December 2016
177 Following    31.5K Followers
- 過去研究一家公司的標準流程是看財報、會議紀錄 + 一大疊賣方報告再建模,這個模式數十年沒大變。這個趨勢會擴散。 - 現在公開市場投資人用 AI 就能達到相近甚至更深的理解,不一定再需要完整賣方研究覆蓋。特定議題(例如 DKNG 的州稅分析)以前要等對的賣方報告,現在用對資料管線的 AI agent 就能即時產出。 - 依賴賣方模型的投資人很快也能用「一鍵 AI」做到,部分建模可能從 Excel 轉到 JSON。賣方護城河正在融化。 - 賣方整體對 AI/agent 路徑態度偏對抗,最終可能妥協,但許多客戶已開始繞過商業摩擦自己建能力。 - 頂級(前 10%)分析師因長期信任與關係仍能變現;但同一檔股票的第 16 名分析師空間會縮小,產業其實不需要那麼多聲音。 - 企業通路(corporate access)仍有持久價值。真正差異化洞察不能只是複述公開資訊(現在價值趨近零),應像 Cleveland Research 那樣,讓分析師深度嵌入產業營運流程,持續產出可投資的洞察。 - 賣方模式目前高度依賴企業通路,轉型做獨特研究可能影響這塊收入;AI 需要搭配框架與優質輸入才穩定有用。
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This experience will only spread, in my view. The historical best practice to get smart on a name was read the filings, read the transcripts, and read a big stack of sell-side research, then model out the company. This hadn't really changed much in decades (outside of innovations in alternative data & expert network transcripts). Having a comprehensive offering of sell-side research was important at the institutional level. We have reached threshold on numerous fronts where a public market investor can achieve similar or deeper comprehension on a name with AI, and doesn't necessarily need that same comprehensive sell-side offering. That random sell-side report that went deep on a certain aspect of the business or industry can now be created with an AI agent sitting on the right data pipeline. One example I've shown in the past on DKNG...in the past, if I'm trying to get smarter & sharper on a deep dive on state level taxation, the right sell-side note dropping at the right time is supremely helpful. Now, I can run that analysis when I need it at the push of a button. The cohort of investors who build off of sell-side models will, very soon, be at push-button AI capabilities (and more may move modeling off Excel into JSON). The moat of the sell-side is melting. And I believe the sell-side has, collectively, overplayed their hand in being adversarial to the agentic path. My view is they will eventually fold, but not before many clients learn to build around the commercial friction and, maybe, eventually come to the same conclusion as Just Another Pod Guy. Like most things the top decile sell-side analysts will be fine, decades of investor trust and relationships will continue to monetize. But what happens to the 16th best analyst on a name? It think it's obvious the industry just needs fewer voices on a name, so how do you pivot? Corporate access has enduring value (if you don't believe it, be a fly on the wall when there is one seat at a key meeting and 5 pods wanting that same seat...). But I think it's deeper than that...how does the sell-side drive differentiated client insight? Not just regurgitate publicly available information (never much value, and now zero value). Cleveland Research to me is the working mental model of deep embedding of their analysts into the operational flow of industries driving a regular & valuable flow of investible insights.
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