Ronald Brownstein
@RonBrownstein
Brownstein, a 2-time Pulitzer Prize finalist, is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, senior CNN political analyst & author of NYT best-seller Rock Me on the Water
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No GOP Senate candidate in Trump 1 won in a state where Trump's approval is as low as it is now in MI; only Collins 20 won where he was net neg at all. AES prob needs only ~82-85% of Trump disapprovers to win; every D but 1 in Trump 1 won 89% or more. AES could fail, but low bar
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After 2024, the heartland looked like a wasteland for Dems. But in 2026, amid broad discontent over Trump II, they are seriously contesting more Senate & Gov races in the region than at any point since the early Obama years. My take.
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The message Platner (and El-Sayed) resisted to instead offer a Bernie-style critique of a corrupt system that ensnares both parties. But in ‘26 the job for any D in a competitive race is not complicated: win somewhere around 84-89% of Trump disapprovers & you win.
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Yes the reason young people are not getting ahead, or reaching life milestones nearly as fast as their parents, is because there is a massive epidemic of sloth. No structural headwinds-just personal failure. Great messaging strategy as Gen Z reaches 1/6 of eligible voters in 2028
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