Four earnings in two days. Netflix: Beat EPS ($0.87 vs $0.82), but slashed full-year ad revenue guidance from $3B to $2.7B. Stock down 5.3% — two-year low. As an investor, I don't care that you beat this quarter. I care that if someone could have told me next quarter would be worse, I could have prepared. Meta: Revenue $64.6B (+26% YoY), EPS beat by 7.3%. But the headline is the 2-for-1 stock split — new non-voting Class C shares. Zuckerberg keeps full control while raising capital for AI. $34.9B capex in one quarter. Up 3.8% after hours. Tesla: Revenue slight beat, but GAAP EPS dropped from $0.39 to $0.22. Bright spot: FSD attach rate above 75%, subscriptions up 67%. Weakness: regulatory credits collapsed from $417M to $113M. Mixed — stock barely moved. If someone had told me that beforehand, I wouldn't have been glued to my screen all night lol GM: The quiet winner. Revenue $50B beat, EPS $3.70 beat, raised full-year guidance, authorized $20B buyback. But WTI at $98 is the question every analyst asks on every call. Earnings are done, but the story isn't — next Monday Israel votes, next Tuesday the Fed decides. Back to back. The election outcome shapes Iran policy, Iran shapes oil, oil shapes the next CPI, CPI shapes the Fed. One chain. YarrowPulse tracks every node on that chain. Open it, and ask anything you want to predict. ☘️

Yesterday Ukraine launched over 1,000 drones at Russia — one of the largest drone attacks of the war. Targets included the St. Petersburg oil export terminal, a VK data center, and an Ozon logistics center. Fires confirmed. This happened 8 days after Trump declared an "energy ceasefire." Open YarrowPulse right now: → Russia–Ukraine ceasefire agreement: 18 updates in 24 hours, 20 related prediction markets. Market heat: 🔥🔥 → Russia–Ukraine Territorial Control: 12 updates in 24 hours, 70 related markets. Market heat: 🔥🔥 The ceasefire topic is surging with updates. But here's the point: 1,000 drones hitting oil infrastructure doesn't look like a ceasefire. And the prediction markets know it — the ceasefire contract hasn't moved up. Meanwhile, this attack adds upward pressure on oil. Brent hit $110 on Friday. Ukraine is now systematically targeting Russian energy exports — and that feeds directly into the next CPI print. Geopolitics → energy → inflation → Fed. One chain. YarrowPulse tracks it all. ☘️

September CPI drops tomorrow 8:30 AM ET. The last inflation print before the Fed's October 28 decision. Right now on YarrowPulse → Fed Monetary Policy 2026: 340 related prediction markets tracked. Market heat: 🔥🔥🔥 (highest level). This is the densest prediction market cluster on the platform — more markets than any other topic except US midterm elections. Why it matters: every one of those 340 markets will reprice tomorrow morning based on one number. Hot CPI → hike odds jump. Cool CPI → hold confirmed. Open YarrowPulse before the print. Check the Related Forecasts. Then check again after 8:30 AM. Watch how fast 340 markets process a single data point. That's the power of prediction markets — and that's what YarrowPulse makes visible. ☘️

YarrowPulse has a chat box: "Ask what happens next?" Try asking anything: — "Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine by year end?" — "Will oil hit $120?" — "Will the Democrats win the Senate?" The chat connects your question to live prediction markets and shows you Yarrow's independent probability. Not an opinion. Not a guess. A calibrated probability backed by evidence. ☘️

4th place at BUIDL_QUESTS 2026 🏆 Flew to Singapore, pitched Yarrow live, made it to the finals out of 50+ teams globally. First hackathon as a team. Won't be the last. Back to building ☘️

Every decision is a forecast. ✅ · A bank sizes an FX hedge → "Will USD/SGD break 1.30 by Q3?" · An insurer prices a policy → "How large will claims run this year?" · A government designs a carbon tax → "Will electricity prices rise more than 8%?" A decision is only as good as the forecast underneath it. And only a calibrated forecast can be trusted. ☘️

Introducing Yarrow: The Marketplace for Prediction Agents. You’ve built an AI agent that consistently wins on @Polymarket or @Kalshi? Now it can earn you passive income while others copy its trades. 🧵