How accurate is Yarrow during earnings season? At the end of our last video, we looked at 4 earnings predictions where Yarrow disagreed with the market. The result? 2.5 out of 3 correct. 👀 Over the next two weeks of earnings, most of our predictions aligned with market consensus. But we still identified several companies where our forecasts diverged from the market including $HPQ , $NVDA , $DELL , and $AMAT Curious about the actual numbers and how our predictions played out? Watch the video below 👇

We published predictions on 11 companies over the past week. Here's every call, right and wrong. Part 1: EPS predictions with Polymarket contracts We made directional calls (beat/miss) on 7 companies where Polymarket had active contracts. 6 out of 7 correct. Cumulative Brier score: Yarrow 0.09, Polymarket 0.19. Two misses to be transparent about: AAPL: We called it a coin flip (50%). It beat. Our logic was sound — Apple's guidance is precise, and the $2.02 threshold was above consensus. What we missed: a $0.05 one-time tariff refund. Without it, EPS would have been $2.05 — barely clearing. We stand by the reasoning, but the market was closer. QCOM: We gave 68% beat. It missed by $0.03. Close call. Our guidance risk flag (65% chance of weak guidance) did validate — Q1 midpoint $2.25 came in below the $2.29 Street expected, stock dropped 5-7% after hours.

It’s earnings season, and $INTC is getting hammered. Are you holding? 😱 Would your investment decisions have been different if you’d used Yarrow’s forecasts ahead of time? So, how well does Yarrow perform during earnings season? —— On the evening of October 29, we posted 4 earnings predictions. All 4 were right. Our forecast differed from Wall Street’s by a factor of 5. In the end, Yarrow got it right. That night, we ran forecasts for 25 companies and got 22 right—an 88% hit rate. Looking ahead to next week’s earnings, our forecasts differ from the market’s on $UBER, $AAPL, $BZFD, and $HIMS. Curious? Watch the video for the full breakdown 👇

Yarrow MCP is live. Connect it to your Claude or Codex and ask anything you want to predict. This week is the perfect time to try it — three major events in 72 hours: 🇮🇱 Israel votes tomorrow. Polls deadlocked: Eisenkot 22 seats, Likud 19. Neither bloc reaches 61. The outcome shapes Iran policy → oil → everything downstream. 🏦 Fed decides Tuesday. Hold at 94%. But Warsh's press conference language will signal December — and that's where the real bet is. 🇺🇸 US midterms in 8 days. Democrats at 95% for the House, 76% for the Senate. The sweep scenario is being priced in. Try asking your agent: — "Will the Fed hold rates on October 28?" — "Who will form the next Israeli government?" — "Will Democrats take the Senate?" Setup in 30 seconds: claude mcp add --transport http --scope user yarrow claude mcp login yarrow Or install the Yarrow skill directly: claude skill install The future, modeled. Try it now ☘️

Four earnings in two days. Netflix: Beat EPS ($0.87 vs $0.82), but slashed full-year ad revenue guidance from $3B to $2.7B. Stock down 5.3% — two-year low. As an investor, I don't care that you beat this quarter. I care that if someone could have told me next quarter would be worse, I could have prepared. Meta: Revenue $64.6B (+26% YoY), EPS beat by 7.3%. But the headline is the 2-for-1 stock split — new non-voting Class C shares. Zuckerberg keeps full control while raising capital for AI. $34.9B capex in one quarter. Up 3.8% after hours. Tesla: Revenue slight beat, but GAAP EPS dropped from $0.39 to $0.22. Bright spot: FSD attach rate above 75%, subscriptions up 67%. Weakness: regulatory credits collapsed from $417M to $113M. Mixed — stock barely moved. If someone had told me that beforehand, I wouldn't have been glued to my screen all night lol GM: The quiet winner. Revenue $50B beat, EPS $3.70 beat, raised full-year guidance, authorized $20B buyback. But WTI at $98 is the question every analyst asks on every call. Earnings are done, but the story isn't — next Monday Israel votes, next Tuesday the Fed decides. Back to back. The election outcome shapes Iran policy, Iran shapes oil, oil shapes the next CPI, CPI shapes the Fed. One chain. YarrowPulse tracks every node on that chain. Open it, and ask anything you want to predict. ☘️

We're looking for 20 seed users to test YarrowPulse — our AI prediction intelligence platform for tracking how global events impact your portfolio. What you get: — Early access to all features — Direct line to the team for feedback — Your name in our community credits when we launch publicly What we need from you: — Use Pulse for one week — Tell us what works and what doesn't (15 min call) — You trade stocks, crypto, or follow macro — that's the only requirement Sign up: DM me or reply to join the seed group.

Yesterday Ukraine launched over 1,000 drones at Russia — one of the largest drone attacks of the war. Targets included the St. Petersburg oil export terminal, a VK data center, and an Ozon logistics center. Fires confirmed. This happened 8 days after Trump declared an "energy ceasefire." Open YarrowPulse right now: → Russia–Ukraine ceasefire agreement: 18 updates in 24 hours, 20 related prediction markets. Market heat: 🔥🔥 → Russia–Ukraine Territorial Control: 12 updates in 24 hours, 70 related markets. Market heat: 🔥🔥 The ceasefire topic is surging with updates. But here's the point: 1,000 drones hitting oil infrastructure doesn't look like a ceasefire. And the prediction markets know it — the ceasefire contract hasn't moved up. Meanwhile, this attack adds upward pressure on oil. Brent hit $110 on Friday. Ukraine is now systematically targeting Russian energy exports — and that feeds directly into the next CPI print. Geopolitics → energy → inflation → Fed. One chain. YarrowPulse tracks it all. ☘️

YarrowPulse has a chat box: "Ask what happens next?" Try asking anything: — "Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine by year end?" — "Will oil hit $120?" — "Will the Democrats win the Senate?" The chat connects your question to live prediction markets and shows you Yarrow's independent probability. Not an opinion. Not a guess. A calibrated probability backed by evidence. ☘️

September CPI drops tomorrow 8:30 AM ET. The last inflation print before the Fed's October 28 decision. Right now on YarrowPulse → Fed Monetary Policy 2026: 340 related prediction markets tracked. Market heat: 🔥🔥🔥 (highest level). This is the densest prediction market cluster on the platform — more markets than any other topic except US midterm elections. Why it matters: every one of those 340 markets will reprice tomorrow morning based on one number. Hot CPI → hike odds jump. Cool CPI → hold confirmed. Open YarrowPulse before the print. Check the Related Forecasts. Then check again after 8:30 AM. Watch how fast 340 markets process a single data point. That's the power of prediction markets — and that's what YarrowPulse makes visible. ☘️

YarrowPulse: Real-Time Global Event Prediction Intelligence Platform YarrowPulse is a real-time global event prediction intelligence platform. Here’s what you can do with it: 1. World Focus Track major global events and emerging developments across multiple topics. On the homepage, you’ll find the world’s most important prediction topics, organized into five categories: Conflict, Politics, Economy, Disasters, and Elections. Each topic card features four key indicators: 🔥 Market Heat 📊 Live Updates 🏦 Related Markets 📈 Divergence Topics we currently track include US–Iran military operations, the 2026 US midterm elections, the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and Federal Reserve monetary policy. You can also expand the interactive world map on the right to explore topics by geographic location. 2. Explore Each Topic in Depth Click on any topic to explore it through three layers of information. Summary provides an AI-generated overview of the event, highlighting key variables and potential scenarios. Latest Updates delivers a real-time news feed, with sources and timestamps clearly labeled. Related Forecasts connects you to relevant Polymarket prediction markets. Each market displays three key metrics: Market Price: The current odds on Polymarket. Yarrow Price: Yarrow’s independent prediction for the same outcome. Divergence: The difference between the market price and Yarrow’s prediction, measured in percentage points. For example, you might see Divergence: 8pt. This is where Yarrow delivers its core value: helping you identify where the market may be mispricing an event. 3. Chat with YarrowAgent You can also interact directly with YarrowAgent through the persistent chat box in the bottom-right corner, labeled “Ask what happens next?” Simply ask questions in natural language, such as: “Will Russia and the US have a direct military confrontation related to Iran by December 31, 2026?” The system intelligently suggests relevant questions based on the topic you’re exploring. Log in to unlock the full YarrowAgent conversational experience. Explore YarrowPulse and see what might happen next :

4th place at BUIDL_QUESTS 2026 🏆 Flew to Singapore, pitched Yarrow live, made it to the finals out of 50+ teams globally. First hackathon as a team. Won't be the last. Back to building ☘️

Update on the Strait of Hormuz — same question, longer window, bigger disagreement. 8/20 we posted this with a September deadline. 🏦 Market: 7% VS Yarrow: 15% ☘️ Today, with a December deadline. 🏦 Market: 37.5% VS Yarrow: still 15% ☘️ The market moved. We didn't. Here's why: On August 25, Iran and Oman announced a phased corridor framework with joint mine-clearing. The market read that as normalization beginning and repriced from 7% to 37.5%. We read the same headline and checked the water. The PortWatch 7-day transit average is about 5 ships per day. A year ago it was 94. The resolution threshold is 60. We're at the third percentile of the series' own history. We've seen this movie: after the June memorandum, transits climbed from 3 to 30 in twelve days — then attacks resumed and the number dropped right back. August 18, a missile killed a chief engineer. August 24, a tanker was disabled near Oman. The corridor framework has no start date, and the US is not a party. Four more months on the calendar doesn't change what's happening on the water. Ships come back when insurance costs fall and attacks stop — not when a framework is announced. The market is pricing the headline. We're pricing the ships. 🚢 🤔 What would move us: a corridor with a start date, PortWatch above 20 for two straight weeks, and zero attacks in that window.

If you had to forecast the policy direction of a country you'd never studied before, how would you do it? 🤔 Ask ChatGPT or another AI tool? It might give you a confident analysis — but with no accuracy record and no way to verify it. Commission a report from a consulting firm? It could take months to get, and no one will ever go back and check how accurate it was. Yarrow took a methodology built on data from a country we're not revealing yet and applied it directly to Malaysia, without any country-specific tuning: 🇲🇾 Brier 0.071 · 14 out of 15 correct · z = +8.8 Five Malaysian reform episodes — fuel-price shocks, the introduction of GST, and diesel subsidy retargeting. Every CPI outcome was verified against the official index from Malaysia's Department of Statistics. ✅ ☘️ This is what Yarrow is trying to build: A methodology that works without tuning is a methodology you can trust when analyzing data at the national level in the next country too.

Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by September? 🏦 Market says 7% VS Yarrow say 15% ☘️ Both sides agree: unlikely. But we think it's twice as likely as the market does. 🤔 Here's why. Daily ship transits have dropped from 19 to about 3. War-risk insurance is still sky-high. Current traffic is running 80% below what counts as "normal." But "normal traffic" is a much higher bar than "ceasefire." The market might be pricing whether the fighting stops — we're pricing whether the ships actually come back. Those are different questions with different timelines. The Aug 5 Iran-Oman corridor talks are the kind of development that could restart shipping faster than expected. That's where the gap between 7% and 15% lives. ▶️ What could move us: a fast diplomatic deal that reopens transit corridors. The closest precedent was the Islamabad Memorandum — the only time traffic recovered quickly after a similar crisis.

The September Fed decision. ☘️ Yarrow: 83% chance they hold. 15% chance of a 25bp hike. 🏦 The market: 71% hold, 28% hike. The split is on the hike side: markets think a rate increase is twice as likely as we do. 🤔 Why we lean hold: inflation has cooled for two straight months, giving the Fed room to wait. Yes, PCE is still above target and a few members lean hawkish, but the data doesn't scream "hike." We ran this question through two completely separate processes: one with hand-picked evidence, one fully automated. They landed on nearly the same number: 83% vs 82.5%. That kind of convergence is hard to ignore. * What could shift our view: a hot August CPI print on September 10. That's the one data point that could change the math before the meeting. September 16. We'll see. 🫣

2010. The IMF designed Greece's austerity program using a fiscal multiplier of 0.5. The actual multiplier was 0.9 to 1.7 — up to 3x higher. They predicted GDP would shrink 2.6%. It shrank 7.1%. Over six years, Greece lost 25% of its economy. The IMF later admitted the error — in a working paper, years after the damage was done. One wrong assumption. One unchecked model. One country's decade. This is why forecasting needs more than smart people. It needs a system that catches wrong assumptions before they become policy.

The most accurate forecaster in history wasn't a PhD or a hedge fund. It was a groundhog named Phil. 🐹🐻‍❄️ 39% accuracy over 138 years. Still better than most consulting reports — because at least someone kept score. Happy weekend!

The most expensive forecasts in the world are never graded. 🙅‍♂️ A consulting firm delivers a 500-page policy report. The project ends. No one goes back to check how many predictions were right. A general-purpose AI gives you an "analysis" in 30 seconds. It doesn't know its own accuracy rate — because no one is keeping score. This is the norm in policy forecasting. It shouldn't be. That's why Yarrow exists ☘️

In 1980, AT&T asked McKinsey to forecast the US mobile phone market by 2000. 📱 📊 McKinsey's answer: 900,000 users. ❌ 📊 The actual number: 109,000,000. ✅ Off by more than 100x. AT&T walked away from mobile. Then spent $12.6 billion buying back in. The forecast was never graded. The decision was never reversed in time. And the cost was measured in decades, not dollars. This is what happens when no one keeps score. ☘️

AI learned to answer, Now it has to make decisions. 🧐 🌊Wave 1 was fluency — summarize, search, write, code. That already changed knowledge work. 🌊Wave 2 is judgment — hedge, price, allocate, reform. Every action rests on a forecast about what will happen next. ‼️The missing layer: calibrated judgment under uncertainty. When an AI says 70%, events like that should happen about 70% of the time. Simple to say. Extremely hard to build. To predict more accurately, you need Yarrow. ☘️