SOX price action during the dot-com era has predicted almost every swing low and swing high for us since SOX topped in June. And $SOXX generational resistance line since the GFC has also marked multiple swing highs and lows over the past few months. "This time is different." No, it's not. It's all just the same thing, over and over. We can't help ourselves. And you and I can't control it, or stop it, or even slow it, or even ever so slightly alter it. We just react. And we make a lot of money if we get it right, and we get left by the side of the road if we get it wrong.

The buying has shifted back toward banks and defensives. This week's desk flows showed selling in Hong Kong technology, reversing last week's selective growth buying. China's September PPI rose 5.0% year on year, while core CPI held at 1.0%. Energy and raw materials drove much of the producer-price increase, leaving a widening gap between upstream price pressure and consumer pricing.

Our prophecy was fulfilled on Tuesday as SPX delivered our expected new ATH. Breadth remains weak, as evidenced by RUT and DJI. The tape has grown weaker and weaker over the past few days despite the new ATHs. Cross-asset technicals and narratives are giving conflicting signs for U.S. equities. As yields hover around critical resistance, I expect a pullback is in order, which could cushion equities in the ST. As mentioned repeatedly, Trump only cares about 1) yields, 2) inflation prints, 3) stock market performance and 4) approval ratings. A push in any of these will support equities. However, the three key AI bellwethers are showing weakness, as SOXX failed to hold above the generational resistance and NVDA is once again back below 230. KOSPI is much worse: it has never been able to break through the 7.1K resistance and has dipped below the ST trendline. KOSPI is indicative of the typical run into the tulip stage of any bull run, and typically, as we have seen from its PA, it doesn't bounce back to key levels. Despite the ostensibly flattering tape on SPX and NDX, underneath I smell greed and chaos. Stay vigilant. I expect vol to pick up as we near the election.

NVDA, SOXX and KOSPI remain the bellwethers of this bull run. NVDA has yet to hold above 230, SOXX is approaching generational resistance around 580, and KOSPI has already shown how difficult it is to hold above 7.1K. These are the names and levels I am watching to judge whether the AI trade can carry the indices further. SOX has followed the dot-com script almost exactly. I first showed you this chart back in June, before SOX peaked. So much for "this time is different." If it continues to follow that script, my call for a major swing top in the coming weeks should play out. I still expect NDX and SPX to print new ATHs, but I do not expect SOXX to follow by printing a fresh ATH. That said, 580 should be very strong resistance. If SOXX takes it out alongside NVDA breaking above 230 and KOSPI above 7.1K, my thesis of an eventual collapse should weaken. Given the broader cross-asset technicals, an oversold rebound in Treasuries could well provide the push these three need to make the break. Stay vigilant.

Copper held up through another round of hawkish Fed repricing and a firmer dollar. The stronger signal this week came from the physical market: SHFE copper stocks fell 15.9%, while the LME cash premium over three-month copper widened. The improvement in Chinese buying I noted last week is now showing up in inventories, not just the Yangshan premium. Tariff uncertainty is still pulling metal into U.S. warehouses and tightening availability elsewhere. If Washington backs away, some of that regional tightness can unwind. It will not fix the supply problem. Higher yields and a stronger dollar remain risks, but so far they have not overwhelmed the physical bid.

When GDX gapped higher in August, I said I did not like the gaps it left behind. If my view of the war's trajectory is right, persistent energy pressure will keep pushing yields higher. Even with geopolitical safe-haven buying, gold will remain under pressure. Gold could break its July low. If that happens, I expect GDX to fill those August gaps.