Herman Jin
@ShanghaoJin
Ex-Goldman Asia FICC. I think in public so my friends don't have to read my texts — your account, your problem.
653 Following 89.5K Followers
I’d rather side with the big guys
@bboczeng You r telling me GOOG, AMZN, META, MSFT, ORCL can’t read the tech, and that 4 of the 5 biggest tech giants r gambling the existence of their companies on AI
I’ll take their side
@bboczeng You r telling me GOOG, AMZN, META, MSFT, ORCL can’t read the tech, and that 4 of the 5 biggest tech giants r gambling the existence of their companies on AI
I’ll take their side
Elon must believe he could pay the bills by restricted shares
$SPCX
Elon must believe he could pay the bills by restricted shares
$SPCX
A decline in single-stock IV might signal a temporary end to the momentum factor unwind
(Below is the weighted-average IV of the AI basket, without adjusting for correlation)
Agree. The market is basically just reacting to positioning
Jukan got unfairly attacked over this
Even though he is clearly saying that optics will outperform memory in the "short term"
This also happened in the February to March period of this year
Memory requires a sentiment change
Buyside expectations were too high
ASP increases were overestimated, and nobody expected that Hynix would sell HBM to Nvidia at a steep discount
Now, what can cause a change in sentiment and multiple expansion??
Higher than expected ASP hikes for Q3 2026(low chance as the consumer electronics players are resisting it) and durability of LTAs
Investors still believe that customers will break their LTAs just like previous cycles due to CAPEX spending going down/peaking soon
U may believe that this is false, but everyone isn't as AGI pilled as u, anon
The boomer fund managers certainly aren't
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A decline in single-stock IV might signal a temporary end to the momentum factor unwind
(Below is the weighted-average IV of the AI basket, without adjusting for correlation)
@harry03994688 Ireland (Intel 3):
~6k wspm early 2026
24k end of 2026
40k targeted end of 2027
@harry03994688 Ireland (Intel 3):
~6k wspm early 2026
24k end of 2026
40k targeted end of 2027
AAOI option flow: 2d Call@170 ?!
Nothing wrong with AMD
Nobody in their right mind bakes continued ASP upside into guidance( except memory stocks)
GPU ramps up slipping is just par for the course(go pull up NVDA’s early ones)
@Auo17470564 @BabybusFL amd财报又不是坏了，还是超预期
China has an unmatched edge in scaling organizations and extracting max output from people while keeping them motivated under intense workloads
How could the US even think about that? Good luck, Dr Lin
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@azarashi_doggo Exactly
Good luck hiring someone for $1,500/m who’ll put in 70 hours per week
@azarashi_doggo Exactly
Good luck hiring someone for $1,500/m who’ll put in 70 hours per week
Innolight is irreplaceable
If there’s one thing Trump’s time in office has made crystal clear, it’s that the man GENUINELY LOVES PUMPING STOCKS
A lot of people severely underestimated the importance of packaging capability and delivery at scale
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Fuck, are you kidding me? This news comes out the day after I buy Innolight? I seriously want to die.
@TShirtnJeans2 @bboczeng Cut the front end, and watch the back end blow out
Seriously, I don’t think Trump knows those are two different things
I dont hate memory
But it’s the only layer in driving $/token up. AI cant scale unless $/token keeps falling
In addition, PE multiple needs sustained growth, a sustained price hike will drag AI capex down
Moat only goes to whoever contribute in delivering token deflation
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@ShanghaoJin @YingwenZ51932 @BabybusFL Why do you hate storage so much, the cash flows are very attractive and even if it ends up being another cyclical the valuations are not so inflated, I'm asking because I respect your opinions but I don't get the negativity for the industry
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No source yet. But there will be soon
NV 又砍了HBM了，不过就是卡一点
内存再涨价只有一条路就是降低capex，大家都得死
I dont hate memory
But it’s the only layer in driving $/token up. AI cant scale unless $/token keeps falling
In addition, PE multiple needs sustained growth, a sustained price hike will drag AI capex down
Moat only goes to whoever contribute in delivering token deflation
Show more
@ShanghaoJin @YingwenZ51932 @BabybusFL Why do you hate storage so much, the cash flows are very attractive and even if it ends up being another cyclical the valuations are not so inflated, I'm asking because I respect your opinions but I don't get the negativity for the industry
Show more
A Red Wedding——something The North remembers
Leopold walked out alive with Anthropic holding & 80% YTD. And he will lick his wounds and come back with another army
Censoring photos of Wangwang, I didn’t realize a dog could frighten you this much
It saddens me to watch my people turn so brutal and my mother tongue (Chinese) environment get so toxic.
What INDEED has happened to us?
