(((The Daily Shot)))(@SoberLook):Today’s Daily Shot looks at historical Fed tightening cycles since the mid-1960s, divided into two groups: those followed by soft landings and those followed by recessions. Equity performance, after subtracting cash returns, is subdued on average in the early stages of tightening. However, returns eventually diverge sharply, with recessionary outcomes producing substantially weaker returns than soft landings.

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@SoberLook

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(((The Daily Shot)))@SoberLook

2026.09.22 13:16

Today’s Daily Shot looks at historical Fed tightening cycles since the mid-1960s, divided into two groups: those followed by soft landings and those followed by recessions. Equity performance, after subtracting cash returns, is subdued on average in the early stages of tightening. However, returns eventually diverge sharply, with recessionary outcomes producing substantially weaker returns than soft landings.