It’s obviously a dead-cat bounce. It has to be a dead-cat bounce. Oh god, please, please make this a dead-cat bounce. These narratives and many others are running through the minds of the bears as Bitcoin shows them that, no, the orange coin does not have to adhere to your precise definition of the four-year cycle. This is the kind of week that almost makes you feel a little bit sorry for all the bears. Almost. You just know some poor BIP-110 believers were convinced that because their personal vision for Bitcoin didn’t work out, they opened up a few shorts and got absolutely slapped at the bottom. You just know (and I’ve personally seen) crypto influencers staying sidelined and absolutely certain the bottom is still pre-programmed for October. You love to see it. And selfishly, I feel quite vindicated that mere hours after writing the most bullish piece that I ever have, the price ripped. It feels good, not going to lie, but instead of getting a big head and getting more confident, I want to do something else. I want to challenge my assumptions. I want to examine the question that’s on everyone’s mind right now. Is this a disbelief rally? TLDR: I think so.

Why do the things we desire most often elude us? If we want somebody to like us too intensely, they sense it and pull away. If we want to fall asleep quickly, we lie awake staring at the ceiling. "Sully, I thought you were an engineer analyzing Bitcoin sentiment... what's with the woo-woo shit?" Because I'm beginning to think the woo-woo people were right. The first time I stumbled across this data I was astounded. Out of every single language marker I've analyzed against the Bitcoin price, the strongest relationship was "desire". When I first saw this, I didn't know what the hell to think about it. You may have experienced this in your life. The more you try to force a golf swing, the more you hook it into the water. The more you obsessively water a plant, the quicker you drown it. I've heard people say this in relation to Bitcoin or the stock market... that you simply need to stack sats and move on with your life. I always thought this was a good sounding story to tell them to just focus on the things you can actually control. Nope. I was wrong. I now believe there is something deeper here. My analysis measures how much desire language (or any language) shows up over time. I then combine this across the broader Bitcoin ecosystem so we can view when the crowd is speaking with more/less desire. You can see the pattern I'm describing clearly on the chart. High levels of desiring language most often peak towards the end of bull markets, frequently preceding sell offs. Low levels have historically been damn good buying opportunities. So what's the takeaway? I have three: 1) The woo-woo people may be right after all. 2) The language we use and the stories we tell are way more profound than people realize. 3) Desiring language is currently the lowest I’ve ever measured it. Given its historical relationship with price, I think that’s incredibly bullish for the orange coin.