Gm,
I don’t think stocks or crypto can keep holding up for much longer if the US 10Y yield stays this high.
If Treasuries are paying around 5.16% with near risk-free returns, investors will naturally ask:
Why take much more risk in stocks or crypto when gov bonds are already paying >5%?
That creates this chain:
10Y yield ↑ → cost of capital ↑ → discount rate ↑ → valuations ↓ → liquidity preference ↑ → more pressure on risk assets.
US equities are also trading at very high valuations rn, especially growth/tech names where a large part of the valuation comes from expected future cash flows.
When benchmark yields move above 5%, those future cash flows get discounted harder → the P/E multiple investors are willing to pay tends to come down.
Crypto faces the same issue.
So if yields keep rising or stay elevated, I’ll be especially careful with high-valuation alts that still have little to no real revenue/cash flow.
Personally, I’m still holding, but more cautiously rn.
Main focus: $BTC and $ETH.